Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 27): Fade Tristan Thompson
Pictured: Cavaliers C Tristan Thompson (13), Photo Credit: Gregory Shamus-Getty Images
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Cavaliers C Tristan Thompson
THE PICK: Under 10.5 rebounds (-110)
Thompson has seen a reduction in playing time recently. He’s been at 27.6 minutes or fewer in four of his past six games, and there’s no reason to expect an uptick today. Kevin Love and Larry Nance Jr. are both healthy at the moment, which limits Thompson’s upside. Overall, he’s grabbed 10 rebounds or fewer in five of six games since Nance returned to the lineup.
He’s also in a subpar spot today vs. the Detroit Pistons. They’re mediocre in terms of team rebound rate, but Thompson has a brutal individual matchup vs. Andre Drummond.
This line seems way too high given Thompson’s current workload. I like the under up to -140.
Bulls PG Tomas Satoransky
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (+104)
I lost on this prop on Saturday, but I’m going back to the well tonight. Despite the good game, there are still some major concerns with Satoransky.
There is a logjam at the PG position in Chicago, so Satoransky should continue to play limited minutes. He also has a slightly tougher matchup vs. the Spurs. They haven’t been good defensively this season, but they’ve been better than the Cavs. The Spurs also feature one premier defender on their roster in Dejounte Murray, and he should spend some time on Satoransky.
Sato had scored eight points or fewer in five straight games prior to exploding for 19 on Saturday, so now is the perfect time to sell high. I’d play the under up to -125.
Kings PF Nemanja Bjelica
THE PICK: Over 2.5 assists (+104)
The Kings are dealing with a couple of injuries in their frontcourt at the moment. Both Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes have been ruled out, so Bjelica should be looking at another increased workload.
He’s currently projected for 33.1 minutes, and Bjelica has averaged 3.3 assists per 36 minutes this season. He’s handed out at least three assists in four of his past five games, so I like this prop at better than even money.
This prop makes a lot of sense at the current number, and I’d play it up to -115.