NBA Player Props & Picks: Bet Adebayo, Smart in Celtics-Heat Game 7 (May 29)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat.
- In Game 7, we expect the superstars to show up and play huge, but the secondary stars need to make key plays too.
- Tyler Schmidt sees value in the player prop markets for players on both sides of Sunday's Celtics-Heat matchup.
- Using the Action Labs prop tool, he breaks down his pair of bets below.
There’s nothing like a Game 7, especially when it decides who will go to the NBA Finals from the Eastern Conference. This series has been back and forth as the average margin of victory has been 13.8 points per game. This is a very tight spread, so let’s hope for an all-time great Celtics vs. Heat game tonight.
As always, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing ahead of Sunday’s elimination game.
Let’s dive into a pair of Game 7 player props below.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Marcus Smart, Over 3.5 Rebounds (-110)
|Celtics vs. Heat||Celtics -3|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Marcus Smart has only played in four of the six games in this series due to a nagging ankle injury, but when he plays he is usually in the game for around 40 minutes. He is questionable to play tonight, but expect him to lace them up in this Game 7 for a chance to go to the NBA Finals. He won’t miss this action.
In those four games, Smart has hauled down over four rebounds in each game for a series average of 5.5 per game. Going back to the Milwaukee Bucks series and Smart has grabbed over four rebounds in seven-straight games, which should provide extreme confidence in achieving this seemingly low line.
Smart has really struggled scoring the ball as he is shooting only 34.4% during this series. He is still providing value with rebounding the ball and his defense. Over the last seven games, Smart is averaging 9.3 rebounds per game. Our model has him projected for 4.2 rebounds, so I wouldn’t go above the 3.5 line.
Trusting the defensive player of the year to get four rebounds when he is projected to play high 30s in minutes should be a comfortable bet to take. Make sure that Smart is in the starting lineup tonight, but if he is, he will have plenty of opportunities to get over this rebound prop. Bet this with confidence.
Bam Adebayo, Over 14.5 Points (-126)
It was the Jimmy Butler show in Game 6 as he played all, but two minutes and finished with 47 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and four steals. It is time for Bam Adebayo to step up again and provide some offensive support for Butler. He only had six points, similar to his performances in Games 1, 2 and 4.
This series has been boom or bust for Adebayo as the other two games he has scored 31 and 18 points as both of those games he finished with 10 rebounds. In order for the Heat to advance to the NBA Finals, they are going to need Adebayo to be aggressive. The Celtics will surely make adjustments for Butler.
It is difficult to choose an over for Adebayo as our model loves nearly all of them. I’m going with just points, despite his rebounding being more consistent. It is just hard to justify anyone grabbing 10 rebounds in this game with a total of 195.5 and likely a very slow pace. Adebayo can get there in points though.
Our model has Adebayo projected for 19.8 points which is well above this prop line. There are a couple of sites other than FanDuel that have this prop already at 15.5 points with the over at even-money. I would be interested in that as well. Whichever prop you take for Adebayo is good, he needs to step up.