NBA Props, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Jaylen Brown, Kevin Durant, More
Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics.
- With seven games on tonight, there is plenty of betting value on props across the NBA tonight.
- Alex Hinton is backing three players to go over their props, including Kevin Durant in his return home to Washington DC.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
The Miami Heat had the best record in the Eastern Conference last season, but they find themselves in 10th place entering play tonight. Center Bam Adebayo will lead them into Indiana to face Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers tonight.
The Brooklyn Nets beat the Pacers shorthanded on Saturday night as the Nets have surged of late, winning eight of their last 10 games. Tonight, they will be back at full strength, and Kevin Durant will be in his hometown to take on the Washington Wizards.
However, the game of night is in Los Angeles where the Clippers will host the Celtics. The Clippers beat Washington on Saturday night while the Celtics lost another high-profile matchup against the Warriors. Can Jaylen Brown help Boston get back on track?
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (-130)
|Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers||Heat -3|
|Time | TV||7:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This season, Adebayo is averaging 9.2 rebounds per game, which is just below where this line is set. Over the last 10 games, he has gone over this line five times, including two of the last three games. In that stretch he has had games with 14, 11, 12 and 15 rebounds and another where he just missed with nine rebounds.
Tonight Adebayo gets a favorable matchup against the Pacers. Indiana is 26th in the league in rebounds allowed, 28th in offensive rebounds allowed and 23rd in defensive rebounds allowed. Adebayo is in a favorable spot to clean the offensive glass against the Pacers as he pulled down 10 rebounds against Indiana in the first matchup in this series, including three offensive boards.
Adebayo has logged 30 minutes or more in 23 of 25 games this season. Barring a blowout, he will have plenty of chances to grab 10 rebounds.
Kevin Durant Over 28.5 Points (-105)
|Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards||Nets -6|
|Time | TV||7:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Few players in the history of the game have scored with the ease that Kevin Durant does. He is averaging 27.3 points per game for his career and is up to 30 per game this season. That means on an average night, Durant is going over this line. With his consistency, Durant will generally be in the range of scoring 30 points. He has scored at least 25 points in 24 of 27 games this season, essentially putting him just two baskets shy of this line tonight.
Durant has scored 29 points in seven of his last eight games, which includes a 39-point outing against the Wizards on November 30th. Durant has not been very kind to his hometown team this season as he has averaged 33.5 points in two games against the Wizards this season.
Durant loves to operate in the midrange area and is making 62.6% of his two-point field goal attempts this season. His 58% accuracy on midrange shots ranks in the 89th percentile, which is incredible, especially considering that he has a large sample size of these shots, ranking in the 100th percentile with 60% of his shots coming from the midrange.
Though he is a great shooter, he has not needed to rely on his 3-point shot much this season. However, if he does opt to shoot more 3s tonight, Washington presents a favorable matchup. The Wizards are 20th in 3-pointers allowed per game and 28th in 3-point percentage allowed. Durant also gets to the free throw line 7.4 times per game and is making 92% of them.
With his diverse scoring ability, it would be pretty surprising if Durant did not have a big scoring night against Washington tonight.
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (-132)
|Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Clippers||Celtics -3.5|
|Time | TV||10:40 p.m. ET | NBATV|
Jaylen Brown has developed into one of the better rebounding wings in the league as he is averaging a career-high 7.2 rebounds per game this season. He has pulled down seven or more rebounds in seven of his last 10 games. However, he has really come on strong over his last five, going over in all five. Brown is averaging 9.6 rebounds over his last five games, including games of 14 and 10 rebounds in that span.
Brown had nine rebounds against the Warriors on Saturday. The Warriors presented a favorable rebounding matchup for Brown because they attempt a lot of 3s. Missed 3-pointers often result in long rebounds, making it easier for players on the perimeter to collect them. The Warriors attempted 39 3s on Saturday night.
The Clippers are as healthy as we have seen them all season, and when fully healthy, they also attempt a lot of 3s. On Saturday night, the Clippers attempted 48 threes against Washington. While the Clippers may not approach 50 again, particularly against a better defensive team in Boston, 35-40 3s will still set up well for Brown. Overall, the Clippers rank 21st in rebounds allowed in the league. I like Brown’s chances to collect at least seven boards tonight.