The NBA regular season is back in action with a jam packed slate of games on Thursday night, with a total of 12 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for five of tonight's contests, including bets for Nuggets vs Magic, Suns vs Warriors, Lakers vs Jazz, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Thursday, December 18.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Thursday, December 18
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Rockets vs. Pelicans
The underrated part of Houston is their offense.
The Rockets are the 2nd-best offense in the league this season. As such, they are the No. 1 over team this season on the road.
The Pelicans are the No. 3 over team at home.
The Pelicans are 26th in opponent offensive rebound rate; the Rockets are going to score every time they have the ball, even if it takes them four possessions each time.
I project this total north of 240, with the Rockets projected above 124 on their own.
The Pelicans are more lively with Derik Queen’s recent play, but this is mostly about Houston, who should absolutely wreck against this Pelicans defense coming off a frustrating loss to the Nuggets on Monday.
Pick: Over 233.5
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Pistons vs. Mavericks
This line is baffling.
The market power rating differential between these two teams is 8.3 via Inpredictable.com.
After everything that’s happened for a Mavericks team that is 8-8 ATS at home with a -1.1 ATS differential, Dallas homecourt is suddenly worth 2.8 points, more than a standard 2-2.5?
The Pistons were 1.5-point 'dogs against the Celtics on the road. The power rating differential between the red-hot, top-three seed Celtics and the Anthony-Davis-less (he’s questionable for this game) Mavericks is only seven points?
This is the No. 30 halfcourt offense (Dallas) against the No. 2 halfcourt defense in Detroit. That’s the Pistons’ strength, their defense.
Dallas has performed well against good teams; they have a +6.3 spread differential against top-10 point differential teams. But Detroit is 8-1 straight up with a +1.9 spread differential against bottom-10 offenses.
Specifically, you need to win the math game against the Pistons.
Detroit is 8-2 ATS this season when facing teams below league-average in three-pointers made per game and three-point percentage, and Dallas is below league-average in both.
I make this spread double-digits (easily), using both preseason priors and in-season data.
Dallas is 7-9 ATS when Anthony Davis is out, 6-5 when he plays, so you can wait to see if he’s in. But if this is a halfway line due to his uncertainty and this moves to Pistons -7 if he’s ruled out, I’ll still like the bet, and love it even more if he’s in and this falls to -4.
Dallas is 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven with wins over Denver, Houston, and Miami in that span. But I don’t like the matchup with Detroit’s physical defense.
I lean heavily towards the under, but Dallas has gone over their team total in eight straight; the offense is moving towards something resembling human. So, I'll just lay the points with the Pistons.
Pick: Pistons -6
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Magic vs. Nuggets
This is a pretty high total for a game featuring the Magic’s No. 2-ranked defense — and as a warning, the under is 10-2 when the total has been above 230 for Orlando this season.
Trends via KillerSports.com:
- The over is 8-3 in Nuggets home games this season.
- Going back to the start of last season, when Denver averages fewer turnovers than the opponent, the over in Nuggets games is 42-34-1.
- When Aaron Gordon plays, the over is just 7-6 this season. Without him, it goes to 10-2.
- Since the start of last season (when Kentavious Caldwell-Pope departed in free agency), the over is 56-37-1 (60%) in Nuggets game when the total is higher than the opponent’s average total on the season, and 29-17 (63%) when the game is in Denver.
The Magic defense is mostly great because they force turnovers and don’t allow offensive rebounds, except Denver is a low-turnover team this season (3rd-lowest) and don’t rely on offensive rebounds because their offense is so good.
Orlando is actually 14th in opponent eFG% and only 14th in halfcourt defense. Denver will still score, here.
The Magic defense is good against top-10 offenses (12th), but not elite so far this season. Their offense has actually surprisingly been slightly better with Franz Wagner off the floor, though that doesn’t account for opponent lineup strength.
Denver’s offense is a wagon, and the Magic’s defense isn’t quite as strong as it was. Orlando is top-10 in pace, Denver is top-five in opponent defensive possession length. They allow teams to shoot/score quickly.
I’ll take the over and bank on a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 236.5
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Warriors vs. Suns
This is all about play-style. Both teams grind it out, ranked bottom-10 in transition frequency per Synergy Sports, and Phoenix has the longest defensive possession length in the league; they make you work for it.
The Warriors just aren’t a good offense. Their defense is the best unit in this game, but their offense ranks 16th.
This is a variance game: the Warriors have the highest three-point rate in the league and the Suns are middle-of-the-pack against the three, both in volume and efficiency defensively.
However, Golden State is third-worst in turnover rate, and that’s Phoenix’s strength. They play passing lanes and create turnovers at the highest rate in the league.
When the opponent averages more turnovers than league-average, the under is 9-5 in Suns games.
I make this total 219.7 and expect a complete grind of a game between two middle-of-the-pack teams with middle-of-the-pack offenses.
Pick: Under 231.5
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Lakers vs. Jazz
I project this total at 250, which is high, but really look at these teams.
For starters, the Jazz have allowed their opponent to go over their team total in 10 of the last 12 games.
The Lakers’ defense has been a bit better on the road, ranking 10th-best in the league, but Utah is the 8th-best home offense.
The Lakers and Jazz did play a weirdly low-scoring game in the season home opener for Utah, but the over is 56% under JJ Redick after the Lakers held the opponent under their team total in the previous matchup.
Utah plays fast; they are 4th in pace this season. The over in Lakers games where the opponent plays at a faster-than-league-average pace is 6-4.
The Lakers’ defense has been much worse with LeBron James back, and the over is 6-3 in games where James plays, and the defense is 3.8 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Ultimately, this is a poor defense (Utah is 30th in halfcourt defense) who plays fast, facing off against an elite offense.
It’s a high number. Just not high enough.
Pick: Over 243.5
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