The NBA regular season is back in action with a stacked slate of games on Tuesday night, with a total of 14 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for five of tonight's contests, including bets for Nuggets vs Mavericks, Lakers vs Suns, Rockets vs Clippers, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Tuesday, December 23.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Tuesday, December 23
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Bucks vs. Pacers
I’m sorry… why are the Pacers underdogs here? They hung with the Celtics last night on the back-to-back. They’re pretty good now.
The Bucks’ average line this season is +1.0. In all games when they are favored or pick‘em, the Bucks are 3-8 ATS. Without Giannis? 0-3 SU and ATS.
What on God’s Green Earth makes the market think this is the spot?
Some trends:
- Rick Carlisle is 25-11 ATS when off a loss and facing a team he lost the previous matchup.
- Carisle as a 'dog with rest disadvantage is 33-27-1 ATS (55%).
- And oh, man, the opposite. Doc Rivers as a favorite with rest advantage is 17-32 ATS… yikes.
I project this line at Pacers -2.8.
The Bucks have basically given up on life because they are dealing with the uncertainty of Giannis’ situation. Doc Rivers didn’t play Ryan Rollins… for some reason… the other night?
I get that it’s a trap line, I don’t care; the Pacers are the better team if the Bucks are without Giannis.
Pick: Pacers +1.5
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Bulls vs. Hawks
Holy overreaction, Batman. The previous game was wild, ending at a 302 total. So, the total for this game has skyrocketed.
There’s a pretty worrisome trend for the under I found, in the interest of disclosure: when two teams play within three days of each other and the previous game went over by 20 or more points, the over is 86-65-7 (57%). However, when the total moves by five points or more, it’s just 7-8.
Additionally, the over in Hawks games is 10-7 when Kristaps Prozingis is out.
I just think the previous game was an outlier and the line has moved too far. Chicago’s defense has been rough since jumping out to a good start, and the Hawks’ defense is spiraling. But I make the total for this game 242.5 — a full 10 points or more under this line.
Quin Snyder is 5-2 after an over/loss when the next game is within five days. He tends to make the defensive adjustments and get his team settled. I’m counting on this being an overreaction on the total.
Now, that said, the Hawks have been wretched since losing Kristaps Porzingis to injury. They are 6-4 as 'dogs, but just 2-5 ATS as a favorite without KP who has the best EPM, Darko, LEBRON and BPM on the Hawks. He’s that important.
Chicago has perimeter defenders like Tre Jones to apply perimeter pressure and bigs to combat Onyeka Okongwu. I like the Bulls to win the game outright.
Pick: Bulls +3.5, Under 253
Nuggets vs. Mavericks
The Nuggets lost their last game to Dallas at home in ridiculous fashion, with Ryan Nembhard going off.
The Mavericks are settling back down a little bit after a good run.
The Mavs’ defense will challenge Nikola Jokic, but after holding him down a bit last game, Jokic should respond.
Denver’s defense is actually quietly getting a little bit better after a rough stretch without Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon.
Some trends:
- The Nuggets are 3-1 this season on back-to-backs.
- Denver is terrific on the road this season, the second-best road ATS team.
- Home teams under .500 playing on a back-to-back after a road game facing another team on a back-to-back after a home game (Denver) as 'dogs are a profitable fade at 47.1%, 121-136-4 ATS since 2003.
The Mavericks are a bad 3-point shooting team. Denver is 7-2 ATS against teams below-average on three-pointers made and three-point percentage. One of those two wins came against this Dallas team, though.
A big factor in this game? Max Christie is doubtful due to illness. Christie has the best net rating among the rotation players on the Mavericks. He was out for the Pelicans game when the Mavericks lost to an inferior team (by at least a little).
Christie is their best corner three-point shooter, a spot where the Nuggets give up a lot of shots.
I make this spread Nuggets -14 with the injuries, though if PJ Washington gives it a go it shortens a little bit.
A warning trend: Jason Kidd is 19-12 ATS with the Mavericks as a home 'dog or road favorite on 3rd-game-in-4-nights back-to-back spots, and 5-1 this season in those spots.
Pick: Nuggets -6.5
Lakers vs. Suns
Nothing super complicated here; the Lakers are without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. That’s a huge chunk of their offense.
Luka Doncic has the No. 1 offensive load this season per ThinkingBasketball; Reaves ranks 19th.
The Lakers have been ok without Luka, going 6-4 ATS without him since The Trade. But Reaves is another matter.
The Lakers are 2-4 ATS since last season on the road without Reaves, and 1-3 SU without Reaves and Doncic.
That’s a tiny sample. But there are other good numbers here:
- The Suns are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season coming off a loss when they lost the last matchup to the opponent, which is a high motivation spot.
- Phoenix is 16-5 ATS when Devin Booker and Mark Williams both play, including 12-2 in their last 14. They have been awesome with those two on the floor.
Phoenix struggles with hyper-efficient offenses that can hit from 3 because they can’t keep up. But teams that are more interior-oriented, they do great against.
Phoenix is 6-0 ATS this season against teams that are below league average in three-pointers made and three-point percentage (the Lakers are 25th in attempts, 24th in percentage).
I make the spread for this game Suns -8.5 without the stars for the Lakers.
The Suns are not just a pesky team, they are a serious team and will take care of business against this short-handed Lakers team, and Dillon Brooks will let LeBron know about it, too.
Pick: Suns -5.5
Rockets vs. Clippers
We’re going against the pros here, as this has been steamed down to 219 from 221 at open.
The injury report is clean here, and there are no strong trends pointing towards an under that I can see.
The Rockets are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Kings. That might motivate them to buckle down, but that likely just means Houston putting up more points while creating turnovers.
The over/under is 22-22 with the Rockets under Udoka coming off an over/loss like Sunday’s disaster vs. Sacramento, so there’s no clear sign.
Meanwhile, Houston is the No. 1 road over team this season at 11-5 to the over, going over by 5.4 points per game. The Clippers are 21st at home at 7-5 to the under — but get this, their margin is still positive at +0.2.
That tells you the signal isn’t strong on their being a home-under team yet.
I project this total at 233, with Houston at 121 on their own.
The Rockets’ offense tends to be underrated by the market. They are a wagon. The Clippers are 24th in opponent turnover rate, which means that the Rockets get to run their offense and that leads to higher scoring outcomes, generally, for teams with their profile.
One more note: the over is 5-2 in Clippers games when the opponent averages more turnovers than they do. They need the easy buckets. They don’t create many, as I said above, but Houston’s turnover issues will give them a few more scoring chances.
Pick: Over 219.5
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