The Pistons and Cavaliers both escaped the first round with a victory in Game 7, and one of them will do it again tonight to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Pistons forced a Game 7 with a 115-94 victory on Friday night and now get the primetime spotlight after the Spurs knocked out Minnesota.
Cade Cunningham led the way with 21 points, but Paul Reed made a huge impact off the bench once again. Look for the two to shine again in Game 7 with Ausar Thompson making his presence felt defensively. Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Cavaliers vs. Pistons Game 7.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 7
The Angle: Cade Cunningham Assisting Paul Reed
Cade Cunningham 8+ Assists
In seven elimination games in his young career, Cunningham is averaging 29.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. By those lofty standards, he had a rather pedestrian came in Game 6 with 21 points, two rebounds, and eight assists.
However, it was his fourth game with eight or more assists in the series. He is averaging 8.3 assists per game in the series and 8.2 assists over his last 17 games against Cleveland.
I lean towards the over on Cunningham's points and combo again. However, the Cavaliers will be looking to trap him and force the ball out of hands to make his teammates beat them, particularly if he gets going early. That should lead to at least eight assists tonight.
Pick: Cade Cunningham 8+ Assists
The Contrarian SGP: B-Ball Paul + Defense + Points
Paul Reed Over 12.5 Points & Rebounds
Jalen Duren finally made his presence felt in the series with 15 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks in Game 6. However, yet again, he was not the best center on his own team. In just 16 minutes, Reed had 17 points and six rebounds on 7-for-9 from the field. In 78 minutes this postseason, Reed has scored 63 points while shooting 70.3 from the field.
In this series, Reed is averaging 13.3 points and 5.3 rebounds. His lines are still this low because his minutes are not guaranteed. He did not play in this series until Game 3 and he has played 10, 14, 17, and 16 minutes since. However, he appears to have overtaken Isaiah Stewart as the backup center and JB Bickerstaff also briefly played him with Duren at the end of Game 6.
If Reed gets around 15 minutes, this line should be easy for him. However, if he sees more playing time, he will flirt with 20 points and rebounds. He has had 19, 18, and 23 PR in the last three games, which certainly makes 20 PR worth a shot.
Pick: Paul Reed Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds
Ausar Thompson 2+ Steals
Thompson continues to state his case as one of the league's most impactful defenders. He has not allowed a basket to James Harden or Donovan Mitchell in isolation this series. They are shooting 29% against him in the halfcourt and Harden has not scored a basket with Thompson as the primary defender in this series.
Thompson is also leading the league in "stocks" this postseason with 51 steals and blocks. He has recorded four steals in each of the last two games and is averaging 2.2 steals per game in the playoffs. Thompson has recorded two steals in eight of 13 playoff games and in three of the last games of this series.
Guarding Harden and Mitchell does put him in danger of fouls. However, his defensive presence is important to the Pistons and that should earn him 30 minutes or more. He had two steals in Game 7 against Orlando and I like him to get there again.
Pick: Ausar Thompson 2+ Steals
Over 205.5
In Game 7, you typically think defense, which is part of the reason I like Thompson tonight. However, the books know that as well and drop the lines. The total has been between 209.5 and 216.5 in this series, but sits at 205.5 tonight.
These teams are 3-3 to the over in this series, but three of the last four games have gone over. Five of the six games have had at least 209 points with the lone miss at this line coming in Game 2 with 204 points.
Additionally, the Cavaliers Game 7 against the Raptors had 216 points. Even a Game 7 with two defensive teams in Orlando and Detroit had 210 points with the Pistons accounting for 116.
With that in mind, the books have dropped the total low enough to create value towards the over. Additionally, we get an odds boost with it being paired with Thompson's steals.
Pick: Over 205.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+513)
- Cade Cunningham 8+ Assists
- Paul Reed Over 13.5 Points & Rebounds
- Ausar Thompson 2+ Steals
- Over 205.5
Compounding Angle (+1576)
- Cade Cunningham 10+ Assists
- Paul Reed 20+ Points & Rebounds
- Ausar Thompson 2+ Steals
- Over 205.5
