NBA Sharp Report: Raptors vs. Mavericks Among Pros’ 3 Favorite Saturday Bets

NBA Sharp Report: Raptors vs. Mavericks Among Pros’ 3 Favorite Saturday Bets article feature image
Credit:

Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pascal Siakam and Nick Nurse

  • Sharps aren't forgetting about the NBA on a college football-dominated Saturday.
  • They've hit three games on tonight's slate, including Rockets-Timberwolves and Raptors-Mavericks.

The NBA naturally takes a back seat on Saturdays in the fall, but not because the games aren't offering betting value. And in fact, because they are offering value, sharp bettors are making sure that their focus extends beyond college football today.

They've made plays on three of this evening's eight matchups, capping it off with a spread pick on tonight's meeting between the Mavericks and defending champion Raptors.

Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks

7:30 p.m. ET | MSG

On top of being right more often than public bettors, sharps also generally bet more than the average Joe. For that reason, it's often made easier to sniff out sharp action by simply comparing betting percentages to money percentages. And in the case that a bet is drawing 32% of tickets and 85% of money, you can be pretty confident that pros are on that side.

Tonight's Hornets-Knicks under is seeing that exact bet split, and oddsmakers have reacted accordingly. Opening numbers varied a bit, but on at least one occasion, just about every book across the market listed a 213.5-point total. That number is now down to 212.

Four Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of sharp action in real time, have triggered four moves on the under to just one on the over, confirming that professional action is responsible for the line move.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 213.5 to 212)

Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

8 p.m. ET | FS-N

Seeing another extreme bet-vs.-money discrepancy, this game instead has sharps and squares torn on the point spread.

The T-Wolves, who opened as 1-point home dogs, are now listed as 1.5-point favorites thanks in part to 82% of money on just 33% of bet tickets. And once again, SI's Bet Signals have served to confirm that the money distribution is, in fact, pointing to the sharp side.

Two Signals hit the Wolves, most recently at a pick'em, driving oddsmakers to the current number.

Sharp angle: Timberwolves (moved from +1 to -1.5)

Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks

8:30 p.m. ET | FS-SW

The final game on tonight's sharp card has also seen some significant line movement in the direction of the unpopular side, but this one isn't featuring quite as big a discrepancy between bets and dollars.

Sixty-five percent of bettors have been happy to take the defending champs as underdogs, but the 35% of bettors on the Mavericks have still generated a higher percentage of money (42%), and Dallas has jumped from -3 to -4.5 as a result.

Three sharp moves have been revealed by Bet Signals at lines of -3 and -3.5, providing more evidence that sharps are fading the trendy dog.

Sharp angle: Mavericks (moved from -3 to -4.5)

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Sean Treppedi
May 4, 2024 UTC