NBA Sharp Betting Picks (Jan. 30): Pros Hitting 76ers vs. Hawks, Warriors vs. Celtics & More
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum
Thursday’s sports slate has presented relatively little value in the eyes of sharp bettors. Despite a full college hoops slate, it’s a measly Gardner Webb-UNC Asheville matchup drawing the most attention from wiseguys.
And while at the pro level a few games have seen some action from sharps, their impact hasn’t been quite as loud as usual.
Let’s take a look at the effect smart money has had on 76ers vs. Hawks (7:30 p.m. ET), Warriors vs. Celtics (8 p.m.) and Kings vs. Clippers (10:30 p.m.).
Odds as of Thursday at 2 p.m. ET. Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
76ers vs. Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET
As has often been the case in 76ers games this year, lineup notes prior to the game have played a role in tonight’s spread. Today, it was Al Horford that was ruled out in the late morning, and while that seemed to directly result in a half-point drop, the line has seen a bit more movement than that, meaning something else must be playing a role.
The earliest books to market opened at Philly -8.5, and those numbers invited smart money to hit the underdog, dropping the line to -7.5 prior to the Horford news despite 76% of bettors laying the points with the Sixers.
Those 76% of bettors, however, have generated only 65% of actual money, meaning bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are going the other way.
Even after the line was adjusted to -7 due to Horford’s absence, the general movement has continued toward the Hawks, with some books falling to +6.5, and others simply juicing up Atlanta’s side of the +7 spread.
Sharp angle: Hawks (moved from +8 to +7)
Warriors vs. Celtics
8 p.m. ET
This game has also had some lineup news causing a reaction in the betting market, as it was announced that the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum would be active. That sent the spread from Boston -12.5 to -13/13.5, and the total saw an increase from 222 to 222.5.
But while the spread has remained in that range for the most part, the total has continued its movement thanks once again to sharp action.
Per Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, an influx of smart money has hit the over on three occasions in total, the most recent of which came just after 1 p.m. ET — well after the Tatum news.
As a result, the number has been pushed up to 224.
Also worth noting: the bigger bets have once again pointed toward the sharp side, as a 61% backing of the over has generated a whopping 94% of actual money.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 222.5 to 224)
Kings vs. Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET
This game has been the one drawing the most clear action from sharp bettors tonight.
After books opened the total as high as 228, it’s fallen to a consensus 225.5 despite just 35% of bets landing on the under. It certainly helps when that 35% backing accounts for 80% of money …
Two SI Bet Signals have hit the under at 227, confirming the pro action and helping explain why oddsmakers have had no choice but to lower this line.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 228 to 225.5)