Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Odds, Picks | NBA Betting Preview and Prediction (Saturday, Feb. 25)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies, Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Odds
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Memphis Grizzlies are in the midst of their worst stretch of the season, yet they’ve still managed to garner the respect of oddsmakers following the NBA All-Star break. They’ll once again have a chance to prove their believers right as home favorites on Saturday.
Denver is missing one of its starters yet still enters this one in better shape than Memphis. The Nuggets are enjoying a four-game winning streak and it doesn’t look like there’s any stopping them.
Let’s dive into some picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies.
As noted above, it seems as if the Nuggets can’t stop winning. They’ve emerged victorious in eight of their last 10 games, and in that time rank inside the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re also third in rebounding. That aforementioned four-game winning streak is pretty impressive, too, when you consider their last three wins have come against the Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers — three odds-on favorites to make the playoffs.
It’s even more impressive that those four wins came without the services of Aaron Gordon, who has been absent with a rib injury. He’s been lethal from deep, connecting on 39.7% of his looks from beyond thee arc, and with him on the floor the team is scoring 124 points per 100 possessions.
Without him, Denver has managed an Offensive Rating of just a 108.7. That’s right, he’s responsible for nearly 16 points per 100 possessions on offense, and in all the Nuggets are 19.7 points better with him per 100.
That could prove to be decisive, especially considering how poorly the Nuggets play on the road. Denver is being out-scored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions in those games and is just 15-14 straight up and 13-16 against the spread in those contests. The one saving grace here is that the Nuggets are 7-5 ATS as road underdogs.
The Grizzlies, like most great teams, are incredible at home. They’re an impressive 23-4 straight up as home favorites and have a Net Rating of +10.4 at the Grind House, playing elite defense in those games. They are 17-11-1 ATS in all their games at home.
So, it should come as no surprise that this team has struggled lately amidst a long stretch of games on the road. The Grizzlies have just four wins in their past 14 games, all of which have come at home. Despite the cold spell, they’ve still managed four wins at home in their last six games at FedExForum.
One key factor in the past few weeks has been the continued absence of big man Steven Adams. He has missed the past 12 games, and in that time the Grizzlies have gone from one of the best rebounding teams in the league to one of the worst. They have collected just 47.2% of available boards in the last 12 games (fourth-worst in the NBA) after grabbing 52.6% prior to Adams’ injury (second-best in the NBA).
Denver’s rebounding has taken a slight hit without Gordon on the floor, but it has been negligible. Even in the minutes without Gordon, the Nuggets are still grabbing more than 50% of available rebounds.
Memphis narrowly out-rebounded a Sixers team which is one of the worst in the league on the glass in a loss on Thursday but did manage to out-score Philly in the paint by a count of 50-36. While Adams remains out, this has to be considered a promising sight for the Grizzlies.
With that, I think Memphis is more than capable of pulling off another massive moment at home. It’s not as if the Grizzlies haven’t been performing at home amidst their cold spell, and this was a team which entered the break with three wins in four games. It seems things are turning around, and I’d back them to continue trending in the right direction here by laying up to three points.
Pick: Grizzlies -2 | Up to -3
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