For more than two full postseasons, the Oklahoma City Thunder have entered every playoff game with the same expectation: they were supposed to win.
That may finally change Friday night.
Oklahoma City is currently listed as a 1.5-point underdog against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, with the series tied 1-1.
If that line holds, it would officially snap the Thunder’s streak of 33 consecutive playoff games as favorites, dating back to the start of the 2024-25 postseason.
The last time Oklahoma City closed as an underdog, it did so against the Dallas Mavericks near the end of the 2023-24 playoffs.
Since then, the Thunder have lived in historically rare territory.
Their 33-game streak as playoff favorites is now the third-longest by any NBA team since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, trailing only the dynastic Lakers of the late 1980s and Michael Jordan’s Bulls in the mid-1990s.
Longest Playoff Favorite Streaks Since NBA-ABA Merger
- 44 games — Lakers (1986-88)
- 34 games — Bulls (1995-97)
- 33 games — Thunder (2024-26)
The 2015-17 Warriors nearly joined the list, but Golden State briefly closed as an underdog against the Houston Rockets in the 2015 Western Conference Finals despite leading the series 2-0. The Warriors responded by winning that game 115-80.
What makes Oklahoma City’s run especially interesting is how well they’ve performed against expectations.
During the streak, the Thunder are:
- 25-8 straight up
- 17-16 against the spread
At first glance, 17-16 ATS may not look dominant. But context matters. Oklahoma City has been favored by an average of 9.3 points per game during the stretch, which is a larger average spread than either the Bulls or Lakers faced during their runs.
The Bulls were favored by 8.8 points on average during their streak from 1995-97 and still went just 14-18-2 ATS. The Showtime-era Lakers were favored by nine points per game from 1986-88 and finished 19-24-1 ATS.
That makes Oklahoma City the only one of three teams to finish above .500 against the spread during its streak, despite carrying the heaviest market expectations overall.
Historically, becoming an underdog again hasn’t necessarily been a bad omen for teams of this caliber.
Chicago’s streak ended in the 1997 NBA Finals against the Utah Jazz. The Bulls ended up losing that game — their first as an underdog in years — but still won the series in six games.
The Lakers’ streak ended in 1988 against the Dallas Mavericks, led by Mark Aguirre and Derek Harper. Like the Bulls, Los Angeles dropped its first game as a dog before eventually winning the series.
Now the Thunder may be next.
After two years of being viewed as the clear superior team every night they stepped on the floor, Oklahoma City suddenly enters unfamiliar territory, and historically, that’s where some of the NBA’s greatest playoff runs have faced their first real resistance.
