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NBA Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pacers vs. Warriors Betting Preview (January 20)

NBA Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pacers vs. Warriors Betting Preview (January 20) article feature image
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Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors.

  • The Warriors are hefty favorites in tonight's game against the Pacers.
  • Golden State is still down Draymond Green, but can others pick up the slack in its otherwise sterling defense?
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.

Pacers vs. Warriors Odds

Pacers Odds +11.5
Warriors Odds -11.5
Over/Under 217
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Splash Brothers are reunited once again! Tonight will be Klay Thompson’s sixth game back. He has yet to play more than 23 minutes in a game thus far, but I am sure his minutes will be ramping up soon enough.

The last time these two teams met was Dec. 12 in Indiana where the Warriors rallied late to secure a 102-100 victory. The under hit in that game and has for both teams all season long. Despite that game being played a little over a month ago, both teams look a little different now heading into tonight.

Injuries have taken a toll on the Pacers and the Warriors. Most of these injuries are also very significant to each team. Even though the injuries are hard to see, they present some value on the total in this game so let’s dive into the matchup for both teams.

How Will Injuries Impact the Pacers’ Starting Unit?

The Indiana Pacers are in a tailspin as they have lost 10 of their last 12 games. They have plummeted to the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference with a record of 16-29. They are however coming off of a victory against the Los Angeles Lakers last night 111-104. It was obviously a much needed win.

The Pacers are in the middle of their five-game west coast road trip as travel to Golden State. They are specifically awful on the road this season where they have a record of 4-17. Somehow they have been favored on the road four times. However, as road underdogs the Pacers have actually covered the spread in nine of their 14 games. The under has hit in 11 of those 14 games.

Any time there is a team that is expected to be decent but has been very disappointing, the trade rumors start swirling. The Pacers have a lot of great pieces who have been discussed in trades. The most frequent has been their center Myles Turner who is out tonight and will be out for the next four weeks.

The Pacers already have a poor defense that ranks 22nd in defensive rating this season. In three games without Turner their Defensive Rating has dropped from 112.1 to 119.9 per game. There is also a chance that the Pacers will be playing without Malcolm Brogdon. He played last night for the first time since December 21st. His status for this back-to-back is uncertain right now.

Lastly, the Pacers leader Domantas Sabonis is coming off of his fourth triple-double of the season last night where he finished with 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. He has had three triple-doubles in his last seven games! However, he suffered an ankle injury in their game last night and it sounds as if he will not be available for tonight. Anther huge loss to this Pacers frontcourt.

This matchup for the Pacers is a nightmare. The Warriors lead the league in Defensive Rating and they have allowed a league-best 101.2 points per game. Their opponents shoot just 42.8% from the field which is just ridiculous. The Pacers have their work cut out for them on the offensive end of the court.


Will the Home Stand Rekindle Another Winning Streak?

After a 1-3 road trip, the Golden State Warriors returned home and absolutely dominated the Detroit Pistons 102-86. Tonight will be their second game of a seven-game home stand. Maybe the Warriors can go on another great run again as they have the league’s best home record at 19-3.

The most profitable bet on the Warriors this season has been on the under. Their game total has gone under in 28 of their 44 games played. The second most profitable bet has been the Warriors covering the spread. Especially as home favorites like they are tonight, the Warriors have covered the spread in 15 of their 22 games. For reference, the under also hit in 15 of those 22 games.

Klay Thompson is finally back! Thompson had his best shooting night since his return last game when he scored a team-high 21 points. Unfortunately as he came back, the Warriors then lost Draymond Green due to injury. Green’s injury has been significant thus far. In the 10 games that Green has missed this season, the Warriors are 4-6 while their Offensive Rating drops from 112.7 to 107.1 per game and their defensive rating drops from  101.9 to 107.7 per game.

Without Green in the lineup, the Warriors will lean on rookie Jonathan Kuminga who has been fantastic when given playing time. He is coming off of a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds in their last game where he played 25 minutes. He has flashed a ton of elite athletic abilities and should be a strong player on this Warriors team moving forward.

Maybe even more important is the status of Stephen Curry. He left last game with a hand injury, but the game was so out of reach his return didn’t really matter. I would imagine he will play tonight, but it is something to monitor.

This matchup against the Pacers without Sabonis and Turner presents a fantastic spot for the Warriors. They likely won’t take advantage with their starting center Kevon Looney and they also have the second least amount of drives this season as a team. However, they should be able to dominate the glass. The Warriors rank fifth this season in rebounding percentage.

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Pacers-Warriors Pick

The Pacers rank 23rd in pace this season. They will have difficulty scoring against the best defense in the league, especially with Turner and Sabonis out and potentially Brogdon unable to play as well. The Warriors are simply too good defensively and will suffocate the Pacers offense tonight.

The Warriors are heavy 10-point favorites tonight. That line may sway depending on who is available to play for each side. I would lean the Warriors covering, but the bet that popped throughout this entire article has been the under. That has where I am going tonight. I would bet this down to 215 points.

Pick: Under 217

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