Pistons vs. 76ers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: What Embiid’s Injury Status Means for Spread, Total
Photo credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid
Two of the least exciting teams over the past few weeks will meet in Philly, although things could be looking up for the 76ers, who will get back Josh Richardson and might also get back Joel Embiid, who is questionable.
Should the Sixers be giving double digits here? What does Embiid’s status mean for the spread and total? Let’s break it down.
Pistons at 76ers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: 76ers -11
- Over/Under: 211.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBA League Pass
Betting Trends to Know
The 76ers are 28-2 straight-up and 18-11-1 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. That said, they’re a negative 18-23-1 ATS as favorites.
The Pistons have really struggled in this spot all year, going 13-18-1 ATS on the road and 17-24-1 ATS as underdogs.
On the Detroit side, Derrick Rose remains out with an ankle injury. John Henson is also out about a week with a sprained ankle. Bruce Brown, who has been the Pistons’ point guard with Rose out, is questionable tonight, although Detroit will get back Brandon Knight, who has been out with a hamstring issue.
The 76ers have been hit by the injury bug hard of late, playing without their best three players in Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson over the past few weeks.
Things could be better tonight, though: They’ll definitely get back Richardson, and they could also get back Embiid, who is questionable after missing the last week with a shoulder injury.
Given the 76ers’ poor recent play, apparently sharp bettors aren’t buying a resurgence even with better help and being back at home. We’ve tracked two steam moves on the spread so far today — both on the Pistons, at +12 and then again at +11.5.
There’s also a money-vs.-bets disparity on this spread: 73% of bettors are taking the 76ers at double digits, but 56% of the total money wagered has been on the Pistons, further highlighting sharp money there.
For the total, it’s all been on the under: This line has moved four points since opening at 215.5. Interestingly, 57% of the bets have been on the over, but a stupid 95% of the money has come in on the under. Sharps are definitely taking a stand on the Pistons and under here.
How I’m Handicapping This Game
The Sixers have been sliding of late, although it’s really hard to blame them given they’ve been missing all three of Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson — their three best players. And not just their best, but supremely important given their skillsets. Those three are among the best defenders and really the only ones who can generate good offense on their own.
Simmons likely remains out, but they could get back the other two. Richardson is already confirmed playing, while Embiid is questionable to suit up.
Those would be massive additions: Embiid and Richardson have two of the highest three on/off differential marks on the team. Embiid is obviously one of the most impactful players in the league defensively, but he also really helps the offense. He’s a force inside, and the Sixers get to the line 9.1% more often with him on the floor.
And Richardson will give them another ball-handler, something they’ve been sorely missing. Tobias Harris is a good player, but he’s better used as a secondary option or someone who can get his shot for himself … not necessarily others. Trade acquisitions Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks are also solid, but they’re best used off the bench against secondary units.
Let’s also remember the Sixers’ home/road splits …
- Sixers at home: +11.8 Net Rating (2nd), 114.3 ORtg (8th), 102.5 DRtg (2nd)
- Sixers away: -5.6 Net Rating (24th), 107.2 ORtg (24th), 112.8 DRtg (20th)
You would struggle to find more extreme splits in the history of the league. After a long West Coast road trip, Philly returns home tonight.
And the 76ers will get a Pistons team that remains injured — Derrick Rose is still out — and has been predictably awful lately, ranking 28th in Net Rating over the past two weeks.
And it could be even uglier. Bruce Brown, who has acted as their de facto point guard after all of these injuries, is questionable with a sprained ankle. This team just lacks high-end talent, and the Sixers are getting back their best.
Yeah, the 76ers have sucked lately, but this is a completely different situation. Is the -11 spread warranted? If Embiid plays, it is — in fact, it’s probably low. If he suits up (and if Brown doesn’t go, although that’s just a bonus), I’ll likely grab the Sixers spread and the Pistons team total under.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.