NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 for Wednesday, Including Tobias Harris & Paul George (June 16)
Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George
- Wednesday's NBA slate features two turning points, as a pair of series are tied at two-games a piece heading into Game 5.
- Brandon Anderson has been hot these playoffs and is picking one players in Hawks-76ers and a duo in Clippers-Jazz.
- See which players he's buying into tonight in these pivotal Game 5's.
What a wild second round we’ve gotten ourselves into.
There’s nothing quite like a Game 5 when the series is knotted up at 2-2. One team will pull to within a game of the Conference Finals, while the other is pushed to the brink, just one more loss from elimination.
We get two such Game 5s tonight, and we already got another one last night when we saw an all-time great game from Kevin Durant. So what do the stars have in store for us tonight? Don’t forget that the stars can’t do it on their own. Tonight we’re focusing on some of the secondary stars to see how they can help their teams get the job done.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tobias Harris, over 7.5 rebounds (+104)
|Hawks at 76ers||-6.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
It sure seems like the Philadelphia 76ers could have used a little more Tobias Harris down the stretch of Game 4.
With a real chance to sweep the two Atlanta games and put the Hawks on the brink of elimination, the Sixers went away from Harris and kept going back to Joel Embiid instead, even though it was clear he was exhausted and laboring through that knee injury. Embiid finished 0-for-12 in the second half, and it’s hard to know what version of the big man we’ll get in Game 5 but it’s safe to say he’s gonna need that help.
Enter Tobias Harris.
Harris is a big time scorer, and the Sixers will need his scoring prowess out there as much as possible with Embiid ailing and Ben Simmons looking nearly invisible at times on offense.
But Harris isn’t just a scorer. He’s a good rebounder too, and an even better one in the playoffs. Harris averages one rebound every 4.8 minutes as a 76er, but that rate improves to one every 4.0 minutes in the playoffs, both this year and in his entire playoff career, regardless of team. Harris reliably plays big minutes and has played at least 36 minutes in six straight games, and really in every playoff game outside of two blowouts against Washington.
At one rebound every 4.0 minutes, we only need 30 minutes for Harris to hit this over, and sure enough, he’s gone over 7.5 rebounds in six of his nine playoff games so far this year. We project him at 8.0 boards and are getting plus money on our bet, so I’ll play at any plus number and down to -110 as needed.
Paul George, over 2.5 threes (-145)
|Clippers vs. Jazz||+2.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
Don’t look now, but the “P” in Playoff P might not stand for Punchline anymore.
Paul George has been the second star the Clippers have needed this series against the Utah Jazz, and he’s quietly stepped up his game in a big way. PG had already scored at least 20 points in every playoff game this season, but his numbers are up a lot against Utah.
George is averaging 27.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists against the Jazz, looking every bit the All-NBA selection that was announced Tuesday night. Even better, George’s shooting touch is back. After shooting only 31% on 3s in the first round against the Mavericks, PG has made 15 of 34 treys this series, an average of 3.8 makes per 8.5 attempts and a sparkling 44% from deep.
George’s attempts are up too, from 7.0 per game last series, and that’s the sort of thing that happens when your confidence is booming like PG’s clearly is right now. He’s made 10 3-pointers the last two games alone and gone over 2.5 makes in three of four games this series.
And even as cold as PG has been at times in these playoffs, he’s attempted at least six 3s every single game and made at least two of them in all but one game. That gives us a very high floor to build off of and means we really only need to catch a slight break to get needed three 3s to hit the over.
We project PG at 4.1 makes, so that makes this prop a 10 out of 10 rating. I’ll play to -170.
Reggie Jackson, over 2.5 assists (-140)
|Clippers vs. Jazz||+2.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
It feels like the Clippers have finally figured their rotation out over the last few games, and that rotation means a huge boost in playing time for Nic Batum and Reggie Jackson while guys like Ivica Zubac and Rajon Rondo are minimized.
Rondo was actually in street clothes last game, and Reggie Jackson has played at least 28.5 minutes in three straight for Los Angeles. He’s definitely been LA’s third best player in these playoffs and seems to hit a few big shots every night, and the Clippers have come to rely heavily on Jackson’s shot making and spacing. He’s scored at least 15 points in eight games already these playoffs.
But Reggie Jackson is a point guard too, remember, and he’s providing a little extra playmaking while he’s out there, taking some of the creation load off of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s plates.
Jackson has multiple assists in 10 of his 11 playoff games this year, and he’s gone over 2.5 dimes in seven of the 11 games, hitting this over 64% of the time — and that’s despite coming off the bench twice and seeing a reduced role in a few games.
There’s little chance of a reduced role in this one. The Clippers need Jackson’s shot making and tenacity out there to match Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz. He’s averaging 15.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, and we’re projecting him for an even bigger night with 32.9 minutes and 4.2 assists.
Our Props Tool likes all of Jackson’s overs, but his assists have been most consistent so I’m sticking with that one. We are giving this over a 20% edge in our favor and rating it a 10 out of 10. I’ll play to -165 if need be.
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