Raptors vs. Magic Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Toronto Close with a Cover?

Raptors vs. Magic Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Toronto Close with a Cover? article feature image

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Gordon, Kawhi Leonard

Game 5 Betting Odds: Orlando Magic at Toronto Magic

  • Spread: Raptors -11.5
  • Over/Under: 206
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBA TV
  • Series Score: Raptors lead 3-1

>> All odds as of 6 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The Raptors have a chance to close out their first-round series at home tonight. But is there value on the spread with them slated as double-digit favorites? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

Only 11 teams have rallied from down 3-1 in a best-of-seven NBA series, and only three pulled it off by winning Game 7 on the road.John Ewing

The Raptors wiped the floor with Orlando in Game 4, winning by 22 points. The Magic are 9-4 against the spread in games against conference opponents the game after losing by double-digits, covering by an average of 3.1 points to make them the NBA’s most profitable team in this spot. Evan Abrams

Since 2005, teams favored by double-digits in a Game 5 are 25-1 straight up, winning by 14.4 points per game. The lone team to lose straight up at home in a Game 5? The Pistons as 11-point favorites in 2006 to LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Abrams

Locky: How I’m Betting Game 4

Why would we continue betting the Raptors when everyone’s caught back on to how good they are? Because the Raptors have caught on to everything Orlando is doing.

The Raptors’ defensive efficiency since Game 1 has been stellar: They have three straight games in the 90th-percentile or better, per Cleaning the Glass.

There are no new wrinkles.

There is also some motivation for the Raptors to end the series at home, so they don’t have to go back to Orlando for Game 6. That’s not motivation you can necessarily quantify and add to whatever your handicap is, but it definitely means there isn’t some type of negative Toronto angle the opposite way. Basically, motivation is something you don’t have to worry about.

Nikola Vucevic continues to be in a vice against Marc Gasol, and the Magic are taking a lot of 3s, something Toronto is happy to let them do. The craziest thing — and most encouraging for Toronto — is that Kyle Lowry can keep being “bad playoff Kyle Lowry” thanks to the emergence of Pascal Siakam! How nice for them.

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pascal Siakam

I’ll be on the Raptors at the current number of 11.5, and I think they easily close the series out against a playoff-inexperienced Orlando. — Ken Barkley

Mears: Why I’m on the Raptors

I’m on the Raptors as well. It’s clear that Game 1 was an outlier performance from the Magic, but it also awoke Toronto’s defense, which has potential to be the best in the playoffs when locked in. This is a good, well-coached team, and the Raptors showed in Games 2 through 4 that they can make adjustments quickly.

In fact, in Games 2-4 of this postseason, the Raptors are just slightly behind the Bucks in Net Rating at +23.7. That Milwaukee-Detroit series is obviously laughably lopsided, but the metrics are nearly identical for these series outside of Game 1: The Raptors have been utterly dominant.

In those recent three games, the Raptors have posted a 116.4 Offensive Rating and have held the Magic to a playoffs-low 92.7 Offensive Rating. They’ve allowed “open” shots on only 18.2% of their defensive possessions, and even on those they’ve closed out well enough to make things difficult for shooters. Orlando has hit 7.4% of its “open” 3-pointers.

And even those open shots generally aren’t for very good shooters. The Raptors have been just fine cheating off guys like Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon, clogging the lane for the ball-handlers in D.J. Augustin and Evan Fournier. The Magic have a fatal flaw of shooting, and the Raptors have really forced Orlando to beat them in that way. Gasol has essentially removed Vucevic from the series, further emphasizing how important outside shooting is for the Magic.

This line seems big at Toronto -11.5, but note that Game 4 in Bucks-Pistons was the equivalent of the Bucks being favored by 18 at home — and, as mentioned above, Games 2-4 of those series were very close in terms of competitiveness. As such, I think there’s value on the Raptors.

Further, there’s sharp money on them, and per Bet Labs it’s historically been profitable to bet those teams if they’re favored:

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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