Saturday NBA Sharp Betting Picks: Bucks vs. Magic, Pacers vs. Heat (Aug. 22)
Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Victor Oladipo and Bam Adebayo.
The Eastern Conference takes the stage first Saturday, with a pair of games tipping off in the afternoon hours. Up first is Bucks-Magic at 1 p.m. ET, followed immediately by Pacers-Heat (3:30 p.m. ET).
And while these games probably won’t draw the eyeballs that the night lineup will (Rockets-Thunder and Lakers-Blazers), they have been outperforming in terms of attracting sharp action.
Here’s how the pros are betting the afternoon tips.
Magic vs. Bucks Odds
|Magic Odds||+12.5 [BET NOW]|
|Bucks Odds||-12.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-910/+650 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||223 [BET NOW]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
Check out our free NBA odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game. Subscribe to our new NBA Insiders tool at FantasyLabs to beat the market with our cutting edge player projections, injury news and betting thresholds.
Even with a tied series, no one seems to expect the Magic to keep Game 3 close. Sixty-eight percent of bets have landed on the Bucks since this spread opened, and across pretty much the entire market it hasn’t left the -12 to -12.5 range.
But while the spread has remained stagnant, the total has been another story altogether.
In the early hours of the morning, DraftKings was still holding its opening number of 226.5. As of 10 a.m. ET, however, it’s listing the number 3.5 points lower.
Unlike some of the sharp breakdowns you might’ve read in the past, this one isn’t going to pit sharps against the public. In fact, 62% percent of bettors have landed on the under, and pros appear to be among them.
For starters, that 62% backing has generated an impressive 90% of actual money wagered. And while that’s going to catch any sportsbook’s attention as a monetary liability, it also hints at how bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are viewing this total.
Confirming that to be the case, three Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — have been triggered on the under since early this morning (at 226.5, 225 and 224.5).
As a result, sportsbooks have dropped this number significantly over the past few hours.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 226.5 to 223) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Heat vs. Pacers Betting Odds
|Heat Odds||-5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Pacers Odds||+5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-230/+190 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||213 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
The movement on this total hasn’t been quite as drastic, but when paired with the betting percentages, it becomes just as clear which side the sharps are taking.
In this case, the over has been the popular bet, drawing two tickets for every one placed on the under. But even with that split, the number has fallen from 214 to 213 — which should tell you something about the 34% of bettors on the under.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 214 to 213) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]