NBA Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spurs vs. Grizzlies (Sunday, August 2)

Spurs vs. Grizzlies Betting Odds

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Sunday afternoon brings a matchup between two teams competing for the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Will the Grizzlies bounce back after a tough OT loss to the Blazers or will the Spurs win two in a row and put even more pressure on Memphis?

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are without LaMarcus Aldridge for the remainder of the season, but they didn't miss a beat in their first game. On the season, both their offense and defense actually improved with Alridge off the court. That's not suggesting Aldridge isn't an excellent player, but it has much more to do with how the Spurs run their offense, as fellow Action Network writer Matt Moore detailed at length.

The Spurs play a different brand of basketball without Aldridge on the court. This season, they've gotten out in transition 16.9% of the time when he's been off to a tune of 129.7 points per 100 transition plays (that's very strong). Additionally, when Aldridge has been off but DeMar DeRozan has been on, the Spurs have scored three more points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

One problem the Spurs might have moving forward is on the glass. On the season, they rank 20th in rebound percentage, per NBA.com. No surprise, they're 21st in opponent second chance points.

The last time these two teams met, the Grizzlies had a +11 advantage on the boards and took 13 more shots than the Spurs. The Spurs' success Sunday could come down to that factor.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies play a very similar style of basketball to the Spurs. They both score the majority of their points from 2-point range: 53.6% for the Grizzlies, 55.5% for the Spurs. Those are both top-five marks in the league. The one key difference is that the Grizzlies score the highest percentage of their points from the paint (49.8%), per NBA.com.

With Aldridge out of the lineup for the Spurs, look for the Grizzlies to ferociously attack the rim. Although it's an extremely small sample, in the Spurs' win against Sacramento on Friday, the Kings got to the rim for 47.5% of their shots.

For context, according to Cleaning the Glass, the Kings averaged 33% of their shots at the rim for the entire season. The shots the Spurs are giving up plays directly into the Grizzlies' preferred game plan. Expect the Grizzlies to drive, attack the paint and collect extra opportunities on second chance points.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Both teams are motivated to win and secure a spot in the playoffs/play-in. I think the market is overreacting to the Spurs' opening win and the Grizzlies' OT loss.

I'll bet on the Grizzlies to handle business in this one given their stylistic advantage over the Spurs.

The PICK: Grizzlies ML up to -150, spread up to -4

[Bet $20+ on the Grizzlies at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]