Spurs vs. Warriors Betting Odds: What Will Golden State Look Like Without Curry?
Photo credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry
Spurs at Warriors Betting Odds
- Spread: Spurs -7
- Total: 222
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Well, the Warriors are done.
The Warriors announced Friday that Steph Curry will miss (at least) three months after surgery to repair his broken left hand. The one remaining shining thing about the Warriors — the reason to watch them — is gone.
The remainder is a team that is fourth-worst in effective field goal percentage and dead last in Defensive Rating (an absurd 118 points per 100 possessions allowed). That was with Curry.
Odds as of Friday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
We’ll have more on what this whole season and situation means for the Warriors next week. (Spoiler alert: It’s not good!)
For now, let’s focus on how to bet them.
The Warriors are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season, despite some strong reactions to their opening faceplants.
Since Steve Kerr arrived in 2015, the Warriors are 14-21 ATS at home and 9-18 ATS on the road without Curry. They are 3-7 as dogs overall without Curry.
The average line without Curry when the Warriors are dogs has been Warriors +6.5, per KillerSports.
The Spurs, somehow, opened only -4.5 vs. the Warriors for Friday’s game. That number shot up overnight to 6.5 and now is Spurs -7. The Spurs are on a road-road back-to-back and Dejounte Murray (injury management) will not play.
So this line is probably Spurs -11 on normal rest with Murray.
I queried our Action Network group, and Justin Phan said at +10 he wouldn’t be excited about it but would at least lean Warriors. Bryan Mears said roughly the same.
I think I have to get upwards of Warriors +15 to be interested. Now, this isn’t to say that the Warriors can’t compete and/or win this game. Weird things happen when stars are out, and the data shows a complete lack of trend, league-wide. The Spurs are also 0-4 ATS this season.
Curry, however, has been an outlier with the above data; everything falls apart without him. Steve Kerr’s system is built to optimize Curry, and that has helped Curry as much as having Klay Thompson and Draymond Green (and Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala) have. But Curry’s also helped that system with his unselfishness and ability to relocate.
The Warriors simply do not have the capacity to run their offense without high-level basketball IQ guys. They have some smart players but not ones across the board, and, meanwhile, they’re short on shooting, containment, rim protection, passers and rebounders. But other than that…
The Warriors have been an instant-fade for our group (Phan grabbed Spurs -6). I’m on Spurs over 114 based on the idea that the Warriors can’t score, which leads to better scoring opportunities for a Spurs team that has gone over 120 vs. the bad teams they’ve played.
But, honestly, trying to figure out where the line should be is difficult, because we’ve never seen a team lose a player this impactful with a team so bad left behind after so much success.