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Suns vs. Warriors Odds, Pick & Preview: How To Fade Golden State Minus Stephen Curry (March 30)

Suns vs. Warriors Odds, Pick & Preview: How To Fade Golden State Minus Stephen Curry (March 30) article feature image
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Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paul.

  • The Suns are favored on the road against the Stephen Curry-less Warriors.
  • Phoenix has clinched the top seed in the West, while Golden State hopes to maintain its home-court advantage.
  • Austin Wang breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Suns vs. Warriors Odds

Suns Odds -6.5
Warriors Odds +6.5
Over/Under 224.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The No. 1-seed Phoenix Suns visit the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday evening, aiming to tie the season series at 2-2.

The Suns come into this game having won eight straight games, which has gotten them to an impressive 61 wins for the season.

On the other side, the Warriors have struggled without Stephen Curry and have lost six out of their previous seven games. They are still the third seed in the Western Conference, but they’re only one game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. Golden State is in real danger of falling into the fourth seed or beyond.

Suns Poised To Punish Golden State

The Suns received a pleasant surprise last week when Chris Paul returned to the lineup much earlier than the originally anticipated timeline of 6-to-8 weeks for his fractured thumb. The Suns didn’t miss a beat with his absence, going 11-4 without him. It could turn out that getting Paul some rest before the playoffs will be crucial.

Phoenix has been incredible and looks poised to take care of unfinished business and win avenge its Finals loss from last season. The Suns are ranked second in both Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, per NBA Advanced Stats.

The Suns have lost two straight to the Warriors, with the most recent one on Christmas. This season, the Suns are 13-1 straight-up (SU) and 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in revenge spots, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme The Dog.

Also, the Suns are also more well-rested than the Warriors. They are 21-3 SU when they have more rest than their opponent, per the SDQL.

Cam Johnson has been upgraded to doubtful but JaVale McGee remains out for the game against the Warriors. Bismack Biyombo will be DeAndre Ayton’s backup.

Can Golden State Compete With Phoenix?

The Warriors should have everyone available except for James Wiseman and  Curry. They’re 3-9 SU and ATS without Curry this season, per the SDQL.

Golden State will look to bounce back from a 123-95 beatdown by the Grizzlies that saw head coach Steve Kerr get ejected. The Warriors have been an average team recently, losing outright to the Spurs, Wizards and Magic within the last two weeks.

It will help to get Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala all back in the lineup together, although I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the superior Suns. All three players are still shaking off some rust from injuries, as well, so I don’t think they are at full strength.

Young players Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga have played well amidst all the absences. The Warriors will need them to step up and have a big game if they want to upset the Suns.

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Suns-Warriors Pick

The Suns have been on a roll and are playing much better than the Warriors of late. They have the health advantage, the rest advantage and are in a revenge spot from their loss to the Warriors on Christmas.

With Curry out, the Warriors are nowhere near the threat they were earlier in the season. I expect the Suns to win this game pretty handily.

If you dive in and take a look at the first-half splits, you’ll see that the Suns are excellent in those spots. They’re 21-15 ATS in the first half on the road.

The Warriors have struggled in the first half all season long. They’re ranked fifth in Net Rating for the entire season, but they are only 12th in Net Rating in the first half .  They 32-41-3 ATS in the first half, per our Bet Labs tool. This is one of the worst marks in the league.

Take the Suns early in this matchup, as the Warriors tend to up their game in the second half. I’ll play their first half spread up to -3.5.

Pick: Suns 1H up to -3.5

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