NBA Betting Angles (Oct. 23): How Size Will Impact 76ers-Celtics
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid
Two angles on Wednesday night’s action based on trends and matchups.
Angles season record: 0-2. We got hit with a rough first quarter from the Pelicans to push the over, and the Lakers completely wet the bed.
THE ANGLE: The Wolves’ wing size vs. Nets newness
The Nets are getting used to one another. Kyrie Irving isn’t someone who just naturally slides in next to guys. It takes time for him to learn how to play with and set up others.
Odds as of Wednesday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The rest of the Nets have some degree of familiarity, but there are a lot of new faces as well. Some clunkiness is to be expected with guys like DeAndre Jordan, Taurean Prince and Garrett Temple in the rotation.
The Wolves were bottom-10 in defense last season. However, for a brief period of time before Robert Covington went down, they showed real promise. Josh Okogie is an underrated defender; he has real chops. The limited data we have with those guys playing together is very good defensively.
The Wolves’ Jarrett Culver is a rookie, but he’s 6-foot-7. Keita Bates-Diop is 6-foot-9, so are Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman. The only rotation Timberwolf (Timberwolve?) under 6-foot-4 is Shabazz Napier. Compare that to Brooklyn, which features Irving, David Nwaba, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris and Garrett Temple, all of whom are 6-foot-6 or shorter.
I don’t like betting on road dogs in home openers, but the Nets’ team total is 114.5 and that number is just too high given the size matchup.
Angle: Nets Team Total Under 114.5
THE ANGLE: Sixers size against Boston fouls
The Sixers are at home vs. the revamped Celtics. Boston has owned this matchup for years because of Al Horford and Aron Baynes’ ability to limit Joel Embiid.
Guess which guys no longer play for Boston? Instead of Horford and Baynes trying to check Embiid, it’ll be some combination of Daniel Theiss (6-foot-8), Robert Williams (second year, 6-foot-10) and rookie Vincent Poirier (7-foot). That’s gonna be tough.
More than just Embiid, the overall size of the Sixers is going to be a problem for Boston. Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris — Philly is loaded with wings who have quick first steps. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for Boston have length, and Marcus Smart is Marcus Smart, but Kemba Walker is older and smaller (though he gives great effort).
The Celtics were one of the best teams at not putting opponents on the line in preseason but their preseason schedule was also weak on serious wing threats. Philly is most certainly not weak in that regard.
While I’m not itching to lay 5 against a frisky Celtics team that can put up a lot of points (and is getting some money from sharp bettors per Sports Insights), I think Philly’s size advantage will help push the Sixers over their team total of 108.5
Angle: 76ers Team Total Over 108.5