The Oklahoma City Thunder (1-1) and Indiana Pacers (1-1) will face off in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -225 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +185 to pull off the upset.
The Pacers did what they had to do: steal one win in Oklahoma City. The Thunder also did what they had to do: respond and dominate to avoid going down 0-2. Now, the NBA Finals shift to Indianapolis with a host of questions heading into Game 3 tonight.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, June 11.
Thunder vs Pacers Prediction, Picks for NBA Finals Game 3
My Pacers vs. Thunder Game 3 best bet is split between Indiana to cover the spread and Indiana moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best lines using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers +5.5 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+185)
Thunder vs Pacers Betting Odds for Wednesday, June 11
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 227.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 227.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
- Thunder vs. Pacers spread: Thunder -5.5
- Thunder vs. Pacers over/under: 227.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Pacers moneyline: Thunder -225, Pacers +185
- Thunder vs. Pacers best bet: Pacers +5.5 / Pacers ML
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 Preview
Can the Pacers win their first Game 3 of these playoffs? Can the Thunder win two road games, which they haven’t done since the first round?
Bettors must now decide if they think Indiana’s best chance to win is in the third or fourth matchup, whether this is an over or under spot, and how the prop market should adjust to how this series is moving.
Can Tyrese Haliburton get loose? Will Pascal Siakam carry Indiana offensively? Has Mark Daigneault finally figured out his rotation?
If the Pacers are going to win one at home against this juggernaut, logic would dictate it should be Game 3.
Indiana is playing its first home Finals game in 25 years, coming off a loss, in a must-win spot to protect the homecourt they stole in the series opener. It’s the biggest Pacers game since 2014.
Except, the Pacers haven't won a single Game 3 in these playoffs.
The Pacers dropped Game 3 against Milwaukee. They dropped Game 3 to the Cavaliers when Cleveland got everyone healthy and threw the kitchen sink at Indy down 0-2. They dropped Game 3 to the Knicks, again going up 2-0, only to lose their first home game of the series.
On the other hand, the Pacers hadn't lost a Game 2 in these playoffs either, but fell to Oklahoma City in the previous matchup of this series.
The Thunder have led for the vast majority of this series. But there are other ways to look at it.
- The Pacers have won both second halves.
- Indiana had a great second half against the Thunder in Game 2 offensively, even before garbage time.
- The Thunder haven't been able to score off the turnovers they’ve created or the second-chance opportunities they’ve generated.
Last game was largely shot variance. The Pacers went 14-of-40 from three-point range, while Oklahoma City got 20 points from Alex Caruso and 18 from Aaron Wiggins.
Role players shoot better at home, worse on the road. Most notably, the Thunder are 0-7 ATS on the road in these playoffs.
Regarding the total, I leaned under here significantly, but am going to stay away.
The most likely stat swing is in Indiana getting its role players to shoot better, and that screams an Indiana team total over at 111.5.
The pace and tone of this series has been unders, but with what I’m expecting from Indiana’s offense, I can’t get there, and the Thunder could still win an over-spot if they have a rare road game where they make shots.
Thunder vs Pacers Betting Predictions for NBA Finals Game 3
Pacers +5.5 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+185)
I think the Pacers carry some second-half momentum with how they got Tyrese Haliburton going by getting him downhill off handoffs and hanging within this number.
I make this line Pacers +3, and I’ll bet a little on the moneyline as well.
My favorite bet though, is Pacers to win Game 3 + Thunder to win the series.
The Pacers can win this game, it’s a great spot. But Oklahoma City will still have a chance to even the series in Game 4, and then likely have a chance to retake the lead in a home Game 5, opening up the possibility for a home Game 7.
The paths for Indiana are simply too narrow.
Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Siakam has gone over this number in 60% of the Pacers' wins this season and 60% of their wins in the playoffs.
By the way, the Pacers are 7-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs when Siakam has scored more than 20 points.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 7.5 Assists (+110)
Haliburton is going to see defensive coverages that take away his passing angles routinely.
He might get better scoring chances, but with a bad leg (he’s been limping in media availabilities), this number is still too high.
Thunder vs Pacers Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 3
- Pacers +5.5 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+185)
- Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 7.5 Assists (+110)
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