The Oklahoma City Thunder (3-2) and Indiana Pacers (2-3) will square off in Game 6 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Thunder -6.5), with the over/under set at 222 total points. Oklahoma City is a -230 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +190 to pull off the upset.
Can Indiana steal another win to force a winner-take all seventh game? Can Haliburton fight through the injury to be a hero? Or, will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander secure the first Regular Season MVP-Finals MVP combo since 2003?
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, June 19.
Thunder vs. Pacers Picks, Prediction for NBA Finals Game 6
My Pacers vs. Thunder Game 6 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -6.5 (-105)
Thunder vs. Pacers Odds for Thursday, June 19
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 222 -110 / -110 | -230 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 222 -110 / -110 | +190 |
- Thunder vs. Pacers spread: Thunder -6.5
- Thunder vs. Pacers over/under: 222 total points
- Thunder vs. Pacers moneyline: Thunder -230, Pacers +190
- Thunder vs. Pacers best bet: Thunder -6.5
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 6 Preview
After a thrilling Finals with a legendary first matchup, the series between the Pacers and Thunder could wrap up Thursday night.
The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in Game 6, with Tyrese Haliburton dealing with a strained calf that may mean he misses the game entirely.
The movement on this game has been fascinating. It opened Thunder -6. The Pacers were bet immediately, and it moved all the way to -4.5 for just a second, before settling between -5 and -5.5.
But then, word came down from Shams Charania that Haliburton had suffered a calf strain and his status for Game 6 was in doubt.
The line jumped all the way up and hit -7 before falling back down to where it is now at -6.5.
Groups have been fighting over this number. First at -5, and then at -7 after the Haliburton news.
Let’s talk Haliburton.
I make Haliburton’s impact on the spread 2.2 points, but even then, I only have this line projected at Thunder -4.4.
The most likely outcome here is that he plays, can’t move, is a decoy, and the Pacers have to sit him. Playing under such circumstances would actually be more harmful than just sitting out entirely.
However, there have been instances in the past where a player was supposed to be limited, but they were not. It depends on the severity of the strain and how he responds to the round-the-clock treatment he gets. He might be fine.
Interestingly, while the Pacers’ offense falls off a cliff, predictably, without Haliburton in this series (by eight points per 100 possessions), the defense actually becomes four points worse as well, due to the turnovers and the ability to set their defense.
The Pacers don’t have great options to fill in for Haliburton.
T.J. McConnell is great in transition and on random chaotic plays, but against set OKC defense, he’ll struggle.
Andrew Nembhard has been invisible, and Bennedict Mathurin struggles without on-ball leverage.
The spot is good for the Thunder as well.
- Road favorites in Game 6 with a chance to close the series are 31-11 SU and 28-14 ATS. After the first round, they are 12-6 SU and 10-8 ATS. In the conference finals and finals, they are 5-1 SU and ATS (2-0 in the Finals).
- Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in the playoffs on the road, but just covered in Game 4 in Indiana.
- Without Haliburton, the Pacers are 11-13 SU and 10-11-3 ATS the last two seasons.
Thunder vs. Pacers Betting Predictions for Game 6
Thunder -6.5 (-105)
If you’re buying into the Thunder, you’re doing so at the highest value, unless you think Haliburton doesn’t play at all.
If you think he misses Game 6, there’s still room to bet Oklahoma City.
The Pacers have consistently over-performed in these playoffs. Every time you think they should get blown out, they hang around.
However, this is the best team in the league with a chance to win the championship, and Haliburton is likely at 70% at best.
Thunder Team Total Over 114.5 (-110)
On top of the Pacers’ defense getting worse without Haliburton, the Thunder seemed to crack the Pacers last game.
The Thunder finally looked like themselves, getting up and down the floor in transition and forcing turnovers for points.
Indiana can’t seem to slow down Jalen Williams, and SGA is still getting his 30 points along with a higher-than-normal assist rate.
Finals Game 6s are 7-5 to the over since 2003.
After being inflated for most of the series, this game opened 224 and was bet down.
Despite 93% of the tickets and money being on the over, we’ve seen sharp moves on the under, including again after the Haliburton injury news.
However, this means there’s value on the Thunder to go over on their team total.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 6.5 Assists (+100) / Under 21.5 Points + Assists (-120)
The fact that this number hasn’t cratered or gone off board completely is nuts.
Haliburton might legitimately be nothing more than a decoy in Game 6 tonight.
Thunder vs. Pacers Game 6 Best Bets
- Thunder -6.5 (-105)
- Thunder Team Total Over 114.5 (-110)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 6.5 Assists (+100) / Under 21.5 Points + Assists (-120)
Thunder vs. Pacers Betting Trends
