Betting odds: Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers
- Spread: 76ers -3
- Over/Under: 217
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
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The 76ers lost to the lowly Orlando Magic in Jimmy Butler's Philadelphia debut. Can the Sixers rebound against a better team in the Utah Jazz? Or can Donovan Mitchell and Co. deliver a second straight loss? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
Utah suffered the most embarrassing loss of the season, falling 118-68 to Dallas on Wednesday. The last NBA team to score fewer than 70 points was Washington on Dec. 4, 2017.
The Jazz are only the ninth team to lose a game by 50 or more points since 2005. The previous eight teams went 2-6 straight-up and 3-4-1 against the spread in their next game.
Teams that scored fewer than 70 points in their previous game have gone 65-70-2 ATS the next time they played since 2005. — John Ewing
Quin Snyder is a little better than .500 ATS coming off a loss with the Jazz, but has profited bettors 6.3 units (81-70-3) in the first half of such games.
When the Jazz are listed as underdogs in the first half in this spot, they're 43-28-3 ATS (60.6%). When they're dogs coming off a double-digit loss, they're 20-10 (66.7%) against the first-half spread. — Evan Abrams
Did you know? The Jazz are 57-162 (35.2%) from the field over their past two games against the Mavericks and Grizzlies.
Since Snyder’s first season in Utah (2014-15), this will be just the fourth game the Jazz will play when shooting below 40% from the field in consecutive games. The Jazz are 3-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering by 5.0 points per game.
The Sixers are returning home after a three-game road trip in which they went 1-2, losing to the Magic and Grizzlies … not great.
Over the past three seasons, the Sixers have shown some maturity, playing well in their first game at home off at least two consecutive games on the road, going 14-7 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by 4.2 points per game and profiting bettors 6.5 units. Philly is the most-profitable team in the NBA in that spot.— Abrams
Mears: Why I'm Taking the Jazz
The Jazz were elite defensively last season. This season? Not quite as good.
- 2017-18: 103.6 Defensive Rating (2nd), 50.9% eFG% (6th)
- 2018-19: 108.2 Defensive Rating (11th), 53.5% eFG% (23rd)
What gives? Especially since the team is largely the same?
Honestly, they're just having incredibly poor luck.
They have a great defensive profile, allowing the fifth-fewest shots at the rim (per Cleaning the Glass) and ninth-fewest 3-pointers. They're forcing opponents into inefficient mid-rangers at the third-highest clip in the league.
The problem is that teams are red-hot against the Jazz. Opponents are shooting 64.4% at the rim (seventh-highest), with Rudy Gobert as the rim-protector. Opponents are about average on corner 3-pointers, but they're nailing non-corner ones, which is very likely to regress.
Diving a little deeper, we can see how luck-based it is.
On "very tight" shots — ones with a defender up to two feet away, so essentially touching — opponents are hitting 50% of their shots. Fifty! Most teams are in the 30s in that regard, and Utah is a league-worst 50%. That's just terrible luck.
Likewise, the Jazz are forcing opponents into the fourth-highest rate of contested shots, and opponents are drilling them at an above-average rate. Everything is still there for an elite defense; luck just has to swing back in their favor.
And that brings us to Friday night: They'll face a 76ers team that has ranked bottom five in shots at the rim and corner 3s — the efficient shots teams need over the long-term. In their first game with Butler, the Sixers offense had issues, particularly with spacing. That caused iffy shooting and stopped them from attacking the basket and drawing fouls.
I get it: The Jazz are coming off a 50-point drubbing from the Mavericks. It was ugly. But I think the Jazz will be motivated to bounce back here. And again, they've been extremely unlucky.
I'll take the Jazz +3; it's one of my favorite bets of the season. I also don't mind taking the under, assuming Utah's defense finally sees better luck.— Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
