Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Pick, Prediction: Stephen Curry & Co. Have Value as Short Underdogs (January 11)

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds

The Golden State Warriors take on the Memphis Grizzlies in a showdown between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are on a nine-game winning streak and look to make it double-digits against one of the best in the West.

These teams split their first two meetings in the Bay Area and the season series shifts to Memphis for Round 3. Can the Warriors get an important win on the road? Let's break down the matchup.

Warriors Offense Is Fleeting in Recent Stretch

The Warriors welcomed back a spry Klay Thompson Sunday and who looks like he can provide instant offense to an already powerful Warriors lineup. For tonight's game, the Warriors have listed Gary Payton II (ankle) and Otto Porter (shoulder) as questionable and Draymond Green (calf) is out. This impacts their depth a bit and I'd expect to see more minutes from Juan Toscano-Anderson who has averaged roughly 10 minutes more per game when Green has sat this season.

The Warriors have been incredible this season: They have the best Adjusted Net Rating and the best Adjusted Defensive Rating in the league. While they will miss Green on both sides of the ball, they should be able to weather the storm due to their depth. Additionally, the absence of Steven Adams — he's questionable due to health and safety protocols — would soften the Grizzlies' interior presence on the other side for this matchup.

The issue for the Warriors recently is their offense, which has been brutal the past few games. They have not cracked 100 points in any of their past three games, including Thompson's return against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Much of this lies with Stephen Curry who has struggled since the New Year. He is averaging just 19.8 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game over that span. While the assists are good, Curry is needed for his scoring.

The one good thing for Curry in this matchup is that the Grizzlies allow non-corner 3-point attempts at the second-highest frequency in the league and they have the second-worst 3 point percentage allowed (37.4%), per Cleaning the Glass. Although the Grizzlies have a solid defense, this could be a spot where the Warriors' offense, and Curry specifically, can break out.

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Surging Grizzlies Offense Will be Tested

The Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks (ankle), their second-leading scorer on the season, and they may be without Yves Pons (questionable) and Adams as noted above. Both Brooks and Adams are big misses for the Grizzlies in this matchup. While their offense can survive without Brooks, he is a defensive stopper and this could further contribute to a potential bounce-back spot for the Warriors' offense.

The Grizzlies are on an absolute tear, and Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have led the way. Morant is averaging 27.8 points per game and Bane is averaging 22.9 over their nine-game winning streak. Those two have propelled them into another gear and no one has been able to stop their offensive attack, which is the fourth-best in Adjusted Offensive Rating on the season (112.9).

The Grizzlies are legit, but I think the issue here is the Grizzlies are so dependent on Morant's creating that it can create an issue when playing teams that are able to switch on everything, and the Warriors are that type of team. While Green's absence will have some impact on the quality of that switching defense (Payton has been effective in that scheme as well), the Warriors have the ability to stifle offense with this type of attack. We've seen this in both games against the Warriors this season where the Grizzlies scored 104 points in each of their prior contests.

Warriors-Grizzlies Pick

The key in this matchup for the Warriors will be how well they contain Morant and Bane. The Warriors' defense is strong, and schematically they match up well against the Grizzlies. The Warriors will absolutely miss Green, but this feels like a buy-low opportunity on the Warriors, who have struggled offensively, and a sell-high opportunity on the Grizzlies who are trying to win their 10th consecutive game.

This spread has moved a bit since the open, but there's still value on the Warriors in this matchup. This should be a bounce-back spot for them against a Grizzlies team that is missing Brooks on the wing and possibly Adams up front.

I'll lay the points with the road favorite.

Pick: Warriors -1.5