The college baseball bracket was revealed on Monday, and I raced to the window to hammer one specialty market: “To Make the College World Series.”
The first element that any bettor needs to understand is the format. Sixty-four teams made the field, but only 16 national seeds host Regionals between May 30 and June 2.
From there, the top eight national seeds have the inside track to hosting Super Regionals between June 6 and June 9. The winners of the Supers head to the College World Series in Omaha in mid-June.
Market pricing reflects the home diamond advantage for the national seeds while creating value for teams that need to win on the road to make it to Charles Schwab Field in Omaha.
The natural instinct is to tail the top eight seeds playing at home. But recent history paints a different picture. Only three of the top eight seeds made it to Omaha last year.
It has been five years since more than five top eight seeds have advanced to the CWS. Yet, oddsmakers have prohibitively priced programs like UCLA (-150), Georgia Tech (-140), Texas (-105) and North Carolina (+100).
So, what is a bettor to do in this situation? Target 2-, 3- and 4-seeds to go on a run.
Let's take a look at my college baseball picks and College World Series futures after the NCAA Tournament Selection Show.
College Baseball Picks, Futures
Oklahoma State Cowboys
+1200 to Make CWS
There’s more than one way to advance in this tournament, but slugging your way to Omaha is a tried-and-true recipe. The Pokes have the sticks to do just that, evidenced by their gaudy batting stats.
Longtime head coach Josh Holliday may have his best lineup yet. Oklahoma State enters the tournament with the fifth-best slugging percentage in the sport, 137 long balls (second) and an intimidating power hitter in the three-hole.
Kollin Ritchie’s 29 dingers led the Big 12, but he’s far from the only power threat in the Pokes’ lineup. Six Cowboys reached double-digit home runs this spring, and it’s that kind of relentless power that will keep them in every game this postseason.
Holliday’s Cowboys must travel to Tuscaloosa to take on an Alabama team that's licking its wounds after suffering a 13-3 setback to Florida in the SEC Tournament.
The Crimson Tide have surrendered seven runs per game in their last five games. This staff is leaking oil at the wrong time.
If the Cowboys can slug their way into the Super Regionals, they’ll likely face Florida State or Coastal Carolina. Both the Seminoles (Wes Mendes) and Chanticleers (Cameron Flukey) have elite aces, but Coastal’s bullpen has more question marks right now.
If OK State draws Coastal, it has the bats to bust the Chants’ bullpen and punch a ticket to Omaha.
Lamar Cardinals
+12500 to Make CWS
Two four-seeds have made it to Omaha in the past three years.
While the deck is always stacked against one making it, a single ace can change everything. The Cardinals will hand the ball to Chris Olivier and ride their slight righty as far as he can take them.
The Southland Conference Pitcher of the Year has fanned 103 batters in just 88 innings of work this season. And when Olivier finally hits a wall, usually around 100 pitches, Lamar manager Will Davis brings in Julius Carpio, one of the country’s best stoppers. Carpio has given up just two earned runs since mid-April.
When Lamar punched up this season, it found a way to knock off a national seed in No. 15 Kansas, besting the Jayhawks by a score of 4-1.
The Cardinals have also had a flair for the dramatic, pulling out five wins by two runs or less in the past three weeks. Given their offensive limitations, they’ll need to be unflappable in one-run games if they want to reach Omaha.
At this price point, though, the Southland champs are worth a roll of the dice.
