College Baseball Super Regionals Odds, Picks & Predictions: Notre Dame vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview

College Baseball Super Regionals Odds, Picks & Predictions: Notre Dame vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview article feature image
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Andy Mead/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Mercer.

  • The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will travel to Starkville, Mississippi, to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs with a spot in the College World Series on the line.
  • With the series price essentially based on starting rotation and bullpen, the Bulldogs enter as relatively heavy favorites.
  • Collin Wilson breaks down the Starkville super regional below and shares his picks, predictions, and projections.

Notre Dame vs. Mississippi State Odds & Schedule

Starkville Regional: June 12-14*

Odds
Game 1
Series
Futures
Notre Dame
+105
+140
+1800
Mississippi State
-125
-175
+1200
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via BetMGM.

  • Game 1: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Game 2: Sunday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPNU
  • Game 3*: Monday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPNU

Series schedule and programming are subject to change due to flex scheduling and inclement weather.


Collin Wilson’s Super Regionals Betting Guide

No. 10 Notre Dame (33-11) vs. No. 7 Mississippi State (43-15)

Series Betting Analysis

Just a reminder that if there is a factor of home-field advantage, then there are two stadiums of note: Baum in Fayetteville and Dudy Noble in Starkville.

Outside of Lubbock, Dudy Noble has the highest Park Factors rating when it comes to runs scored. This regional figures to be a barn-burner between an SEC stronghold and a Notre Dame team playing with a chip on its shoulder for not being a top-eight seed.

The placement of the Irish was a clear reflection of their RPI, a rank that was affected by non-conference COVID-19 cancellations.

Notre Dame swept the South Bend regional with a combined score of 50-5.

John Michael Bertrand threw a complete-game five-hitter against Central Michigan, while the offense put up six home runs in a rout of UConn.

The Bulldog pitching duo of Will Bednar and Christian MacLeod will presumably put up more of a challenge than the pitching staff of UConn and Central Michigan. Both starters have combined for 215 strikeouts through 146.2 innings on the season.

Landon Sims has been the anchor for the bullpen and may be the second-best closer in the nation. The sophomore has logged 74 strikeouts against 13 walks and six earned runs through 37.1 innings. Mississippi State tops the nation in strikeouts per nine innings.

Probable Starting Pitchers & Projected Odds

Game
Notre Dame
Mississippi State
Proj.
1
John Michael Bertrand
Will Bednar
MSST -190
2
Tanner Kohlhepp
Christian MacLeod
MSST -150
3*
Aidan Tyrell
Houston Harding
MSST -200

If there’s an issue for Notre Dame at the plate, look no farther than scoring runs. The Irish rank 69th in on-base percentage and 139th in walks with a schedule against ACC pitching.

As Mississippi State dominates with the strikeout, the Notre Dame pitching staff does the opposite, ranking just 190th per nine innings.

The price for this series based on rotations and bullpens is Mississippi State -175.

If we take a trip down narrative street, it may be tough to find a Notre Dame series played in humid weather. Starkville is looking at 90 degrees with max humidity for the series, a stark contrast for the Irish, who had road series at Boston College and Pittsburgh in the month of April.

Pick: Mississippi State -175

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