The Citadel Bulldogs take on the Oklahoma Sooners in college baseball's 2026 NCAA Tournament at 5 p.m. ET on Friday, May 29. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.
Oklahoma enters as a favorite of -175 on the moneyline and is -1.5 (+105) on the run line. The Citadel, meanwhile, enters as a +135 underdog and is +1.5 (-135) on the run line. The over/under sits at 12.5 total runs (-115o / -115u).
Let's dive into my The Citadel vs Oklahoma prediction and NCAA baseball picks for Friday, May 29.
The Citadel vs Oklahoma Prediction
- The Citadel vs. Oklahoma Pick: Oklahoma ML -170
My Oklahoma vs. The Citadel best bet is on the Sooners to win the game outright.
The Citadel vs Oklahoma Odds
| The Citadel Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 12.5 -115o / -115u | +135 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 12.5 -115o / -115u | -175 |
The Citadel vs Oklahoma Pick, Betting Analysis
Another team that opened up with a wide range of odds, Oklahoma begins its tournament journey against The Citadel. The Sooners average 26th between RPI, DSR and KPI ratings systems compared to the Bulldogs’ mark of 50.3.
I’m concerned about The Citadel’s lack of pitching. Its staff’s combined 6.13 xFIP ranks 13th-worst among all tournament teams and fourth-worst among No. 3 seeds. There’s not nearly enough firepower to offset that shortcoming.
However, keep an eye on Andrew Buffkin, who holds a 2.62 ERA in seven starts. He’s a lethal arm that the Bulldogs use wherever possible. But will Buffkin appear in Game 1? Or will The Citadel save him for a win-or-go-home situation?
Oklahoma ranks fourth among No. 2 seeds in terms of aggregate power. It skidded to the final bell on a 3-7 slide in May and 4-10 finish. But those losses came against two Regional hosts and two of the highest-ranked No. 2 seeds.
Are the Sooners a legitimate threat to win it all? Not likely, but I’ll side with them in their opening game against an overmatched 11-10 SoCon team.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -170
