Ole Miss vs. Iowa Odds & Betting Predictions - November 26, 2025

Nasty as hell

2025-2026 NCAAB best bet record: 1-0. I wish I sent this last night, but there’s still value at the current number. This Iowa team is legit. This is not the normal Iowa team we’re used to. The Hawkeyes fired Fran McCaffery and brought in Ben McCollum, the outstanding Drake Bulldogs coach. With that move came a wave of Drake players from last year’s really good squad. Using Bayesian Performance Ratings, we can see that Iowa has four players with a higher BPR than Ole Miss’ top rated player. Iowa is not only more talented, they’re deeper. The Hawkeyes are headlined by Bennett Stirtz, one of the best players in the country, and they also have Alvaro Folgueiras, the former Horizon League Player of the Year. This team is well balanced and has been one of the best offenses in the nation. Iowa is currently first in the country in effective FG% and 2P%. It’s crazy to me how well this offense is playing, because Drake was a defensive first team last season. Ben McCollum is a defensive minded coach, so seeing Iowa’s offensive efficiency higher than their defensive efficiency was wild to me. I have zero doubt they’ll begin to climb the defensive rankings. If their offense continues at this level and their defense returns to the elite standard we saw at Drake last year, this team will be tough to beat. Iowa is also a very tall team and will have the size advantage tonight. Ole Miss is good, not great. The Rebels rank just 134th in adjusted offensive shot quality and 107th defensively. Iowa is 23rd and 42nd in those same metrics. Ole Miss also has a 4-1 ShotQuality record compared to their actual 5–0 record. The data suggests they were fortunate to beat Austin Peay (184th on KenPom). Iowa is the best passing team in the country, and it all starts with Bennett Stirtz. His ability to read coverage, punish denials, and Iowa’s elite cutting behind those actions makes this offense ridiculously efficient. Ole Miss loves to switch ball screens, but I’m not convinced their switching scheme can hold up consistently enough. You might think: So we’re basically betting on last year’s Drake team? That might not sound sexy on the surface, but that team was elite and this Iowa team is even more stacked. Drake beat Miami, Vanderbilt, FAU, Kansas State, and Missouri last season. This is a great group with elite coaching. Meanwhile, Ole Miss lost their top five players from last season. Despite Chris Beard being a great coach, I don’t think this team is going to be very good this season. Offensively, the Rebels run through Ilias Kamardine, but outside of him this team lacks juice. Give me the Hawkeyes to cover.