Purdue vs. Illinois Odds & Betting Predictions - March 8, 2025

#Tailing @nick_giffen

@TheDegenWeekly

🔑 Purdue ML +165 (BetMGM) 2u I don’t get why Purdue is an underdog here like this. Both these teams have had bad stretches but TKR is a stud and if Purdue can stop JAKUCIONIS, I can see this being a blowout. TKR and Smith need to start off hot and I love them to get this done. My model loves them too B grade and +133. Great +EV value here

Illinois hit a rough patch midseason with injuries and an illness that went through the locker room, but they're back on track now and looking strong. After two straight wins by 20 points, the Fighting Illini are starting to resemble the team I expected at the beginning of the season. This is one of the most talented squads in the country, and they have a great matchup against Purdue. While Purdue is having another solid season, I’m still not fully sold on this team. The Boilermakers will be at a major height disadvantage tonight, something that hasn’t been an issue in recent seasons. Illinois is the 14th tallest team in the nation, while Purdue ranks 177th. We’ve seen Purdue struggle against taller teams like Indiana, Michigan, and Marquette. Illinois is much more talented than all of them. Due to their size, Purdue has also been awful at defending the rim, ranking 337th in defensive 2P%. That’s a tough situation when you’re facing an Illinois team that ranks 14th in the country in 2P%. Tomislav Ivisic will get whatever he wants down low. Purdue has been elite from beyond the arc, but Illinois does a great job limiting teams from shooting 3s. Opponents take the 3 just 26.2% of the time against Illinois (compared to the D1 average of 31.5%), which minimizes Purdue’s biggest offensive weapon. On top of that, Purdue plays at the 296th slowest pace, while Illinois runs at the 18th quickest tempo. This will be the fastest pace Purdue has seen in months, and I don’t think they’ll adjust well, especially on the road. This is exactly when Illinois caught fire last season, eventually winning the Big Ten Tournament. They’ll be looking to repeat that run, starting with a big ranked win on Senior Night in their final home game of the year. Take Illinois to cover at home.