2023 March Madness: Xavier’s Odds to Make Final Four, Win Tournament

2023 March Madness: Xavier’s Odds to Make Final Four, Win Tournament article feature image

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Xavier's dominant win over Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon sends them two steps away from the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.

But it won't be an easy road ahead for the Musketeers to win March Madness. They need to beat Texas and perhaps Houston to get there — the No. 5 and No. 1 teams in the country respectively, according to KenPom.

Xavier's odds to win the NCAA Tournament are 32-1 at FanDuel, the 11th-best odds remaining. The Musketeers have a 3.03% implied probability to win March Madness, according to those betting odds.

Xavier has never won an NCAA Tournament in the program's history. In fact, the Musketeers have yet to reach a Final Four.

Their best finish occurred in the Elite Eight, a round they made in 2004, 2008 and 2017.

Their odds to make the Final Four are +550 at FanDuel. Those imply odds of about 15% that they reach a program-first Final Four.

To do so, Xavier would need to get through Texas in the Sweet 16 as +142 underdogs. Then, they'll likely have to get through Houston in the Elite Eight.

It'll be no easy feat — those two teams are among the most likely to win it all this year, when considering Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO), Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) and Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM).

Xavier's road to the Sweet 16 hasn't been exactly smooth. It took a 13-point comeback late in the second half vs. Kennesaw State — roughly +600 underdogs — to make the Round of 32. Xavier had been about -800 favorites in that game on the moneyline.

The Musketeers were down 61-48 with just 9:57 remaining.

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But on Sunday, Xavier quelled some of the residual concern from that game by dismantling Pittsburgh and easily covering their -5.5 spread.

Xavier had also been -210 on the moneyline for that Round of 32 contest.

Xavier's Final Four odds have yet to be posted as of publish, but this story will be updated whenever they are.

For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, check out the latest college basketball odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all of the 2023 NCAA Tournament games.

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