2023 Sweet 16: Miami, Creighton, Texas Predictions Based on Free Throw Percentage

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It might seem intuitive, but good free throw shooting teams are profitable during the NCAA Tournament.

The Action Network's director of research Evan Abrams has developed a betting trend that's applicable to three Sweet 16 games on Friday night — and target the spreads for Miami, Creighton and Texas.

Since 2005, teams that shoot 75% or better from the charity stripe win about 56% of the time, including a 60% win rate since 2018 (64-43-2) and a 60.4% win rate since 2016 (84-55-4).

That fits the bill for Miami vs. Houston; Creighton vs. Alabama; and Texas vs. Xavier.

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The best market prices are listed below.

  • Miami +7.5 (-108) at WynnBet
  • Creighton -9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
  • Texas -3.5 (-118) at FanDuel

Pick: Texas -3.5 (-118)

The Action Network has also developed a proprietary betting system that applies to Texas vs. Xavier. For it, the philosophy is to fade the public on a line that they love the most.

The betting system has won about 55% of the time since 2005 and targets the total. That's good for a roughly 6% return on investment.

Read more about the specific parameters behind that betting system here.

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Nick Sterling
Jul 21, 2024 UTC