It’s time for March Madness and for our NCAA Tournament bracket picks.
Sean Koerner gave his bracket out earlier in the week, and now it's time to reveal mine. Much like Sean, I'm aiming to take it all down with leverage plays, with the goal of hitting the top tiers of bracket payouts or to have it bust trying.
That means you'll see me have mediocre years like last year, where my bracket finished in the 52nd percentile, or a year like 2023 where I finished in the 97th percentile. So, without further ado, here are my 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks
| Click on a section to skip ahead | ||
| East | ||
| South | ||
| West | ||
| Midwest | ||
| Final Four | ||
East Region
As you can see, in the East Region I do not have Duke in the Final Four, but instead, I took St. John's for a few reasons.
First, the Johnnies rank second in my power ratings from this region, so they're the team most likely to put Duke to the test. And second, Duke has been dealing with some injuries which, while it shouldn't hurt it in the first weekend, if any linger through to the second weekend, that would make things just a touch tougher for it against St. John's.
I also have Louisville highly underseeded as a No. 6 seed. Even accounting for Mikel Brown Jr's absence, I make Louisville more like a five seed. Duke gets a bit unlucky to have one of the strongest six seeds and the strongest five seed in the tournament.
As I talked about in my Giffen Guide to March Madness, I chose UCF over UCLA because I have the game closer than the market thinks. That applies here to the bracket as well, where I have UCF winning 34.3% of the time, compared to around 30.8% of people picking the Knights to advance.
I also have Louisville upsetting UConn, which grades out as the worst No. 2 seed by quite a bit. My power rankings make the Huskies a borderline 3-4 seed, yet almost 50% of brackets have the Huskies advancing to the Elite Eight and just under 5% have Louisville.
I'd have the Cardinals as about a one-point underdog if we assume Brown returns for that hypothetical matchup.
Everything else in this region is relatively chalky, as I already have enough differentiation with St. John's to the Final Four and Louisville's run to the Elite Eight.
South Region
Now to the South Region to see who faces St. John's in the Final Four in my bracket.
The Gators are actually the No. 1 seed I give the lowest chance to make it out of their region, so I went with Houston, which rates as the fifth-best team in the nation by my numbers.
I don't have a lot of chaos here, but I do have VCU over North Carolina as a bit of a leverage spot. Remember, Tar Heels star freshman Caleb Wilson is out for the season.
I took Saint Mary's over Texas A&M, despite taking the Aggies in my Giffen Guide to March Madness (these are different formats). In the Giffen Guide, I'm looking to leverage betting odds, but here, we're looking to leverage against other people.
I have Saint Mary's winning around 59%, compared to 53.5% of people picking the Gaels in brackets.
Like Sean, I also went with Nebraska over Vanderbilt because of the leverage score. I have a matchup between the two as a 56/44 game favoring Vandy, but the Huskers have the better first-round matchup (92% chance to advance over Troy, compared to just 83% for the Commodores against McNeese).
Pick your poison between Iowa and Clemson. I have Iowa nominally favored and the Hawkeyes nominally picked above the Tigers, so there's no real leverage there. I'll just take the team that's slightly more likely to win.
West Region
In the west, Utah State is an easy pick in the 8/9 game as a favorite over Villanova, but the public is backing the more nationally recognized name, Villanova.
Texas is another clear leverage spot, as BYU is being taken in nearly 80% of brackets in a game that I have the Cougars winning only 63% of the time.
I'm almost dead even with Miami to the public, so it makes sense to back the favorite there in the 7/10 game, but either way, Purdue should advance past the Canes or Missouri.
However, I don't have Purdue in the Final Four, which was a last minute switch by me. From a leverage standpoint the Boilers make a ton of sense, but I ran across some analysis from Clevta on Twitter — a great sports analytics follow — and that put me back on Arizona to win the No. 1 vs No. 2 matchup in the West.
Everything else in the region is chalk for me.
Midwest Region
Now to the last region. This is where I give Michigan the highest chance of advancing to the Final Four of all the one seeds, so it makes sense to place the Wolverines in Indianapolis alongside Arizona, Houston and St. John's.
Once again, I have a chalky first round, with the only seed upset being Santa Clara (10 seed) over Kentucky. I have the Wildcats favored at around 60%, but the public is picking this closer to 2-1, leaving some leverage on Santa Clara.
For the 8/9 game, I have Georgia winning 55.7%, which is right around where the Bulldogs are being picked. That means I'll go with the more likely outcome.
The big leverage in this region is Tennessee. I have the Vols beating my Virginia Cavaliers in the 3/6 game and then going on to bounce No. 2-seeded Iowa State, which has a bit more trouble away from home.
The Alabama/Texas Tech game is an interesting one, where both teams could be down a key player. JT Toppin is out for the season for the Red Raiders, while Aden Holloway might miss this game after being arrested earlier this week.
I'm fine if you want to pick either team there, but with the better opening matchup and a slightly higher power rating, I went with Bama, even though leverage could say to take Texas Tech.
Final Four
There's no getting fancy for me here. I already took a risk with St. John's coming out of the East, and I have Houston power-rated as the fifth-best team in the nation. I'll take the Cougars to the final.
On the other side, it truly is a toss-up between Michigan and Arizona. However, with Michigan's 5-6% edge in just making the Final Four over Arizona, but the public backing the Wildcats, I'll look to the Wolverines to slide their way into the championship game.
From there, I have Michigan over Houston. Both teams provide nice leverage in this game, so give me the more favored outcome.
Michigan 73-70 over Houston.
