Alabama vs Arizona Odds, Pick for Wednesday

The Arizona Wildcats are coming off of an eight-point loss to the Purdue Boilermakers, who are now No.1 in the AP poll. Arizona moves on to host the Alabama Crimson Tide in downtown Phoenix, Arizona on Wednesday. Alabama has had a bumpy start to the season, but all four of the Crimson Tide's losses are to top-26 KenPom teams.

Alabama has the best offense in the country, per KenPom. The Tide can shoot inside and out, while the Wildcats struggle mightily with allowing too many 3-pointers.

This could lead to value on the underdogs from Tuscaloosa with increased variance, but will Alabama cover the spread and even pull the outright upset?

The Crimson Tide are shooting 57% from inside the arc and 39.1% from 3-point land. They launch threes 44.2% of the time, which ranks 44th in the nation, per Kenpom. Mark Sears spearheads the offense by averaging a team-high 21.2 points per game on a ridiculous 48.1% on 3s The problem here for Arizona is that Bama has a well balanced perimeter attack around Sears with six total players shooting at least 35% from beyond the arc.

Arizona is allowing a 3-point attempt rate of 37.6%, ranking 194^th in college hoops, and opponents are shooting over 34% from deep on the Wildcats, which ranks outside the top 230 in the nation. Additionally, they rank 229^th in defensive Open 3-point Rate, per Shot Quality. Alabama will get its chances from 3-point range and should capitalize on them.

Furthermore, Alabama also ranks eighth in offensive Rim and 3 Rate. They should have chances to score near the basket as they rank 42^nd in points per possession (PPP) at the rim, while Arizona ranks 234^th in PPP allowed at the rim on defense.

But the Tide are vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will face a stiff challenge in stopping the elite Arizona offense that ranks sixth nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and has five different players averaging at least 11 points per game.

One area of concern for the Crimson Tide is allowing offense boards. Despite ranking 23^rd on the offensive glass themselves, Alabama ranks 136^th defensively. Arizona ranks 18^th on offense and first in the nation on defense. Between Grant Nelson, Nick Pringle, Mohamed Wague, Jarin Stevenson and Sam Walters, the Tide have the size to contend with Oumar Ballo of Arizona, but rebounds will likely skew in the Wildcats' favor.

Arizona has elite shooting splits from both inside and outside. The Wildcats are hitting 38.9% from 3-point land and 57.5% from 2-point range, ranking among the top 20 in the nation in each statistic. Alabama is allowing opponents to shoot 33.6% from outside and 51.8% from inside the arc, which both rank outside the top 200 in the nation.

However, Arizona ranks just 303^rd in 3-point attempt rate. Since Alabama shoots so many 3s and will likely hit them, the Tide should be trading 3s for 2s for much of this game.

Arizona also does not do the best job of taking care of the basketball. The Wildcats rank 104^th in Offensive Turnover Rate, while the Crimson Tide rank 60^th offensively. This could be an area of opportunity for the Crimson Tide to generate extra possessions.

Arizona ranks 146^th in Offensive Free-throw Attempt Rate and seventh in Defensive Free-throw Attempt Rate allowed as they do not foul or get fouled often. On the other end of the floor, Alabama ranks 40^th in Offensive Free-throw Attempt Rate and 281^st defensively. This could be a favorable matchup for the Tide to hide their high Foul Rate.

Arizona is the better team between these two, but the Wildcats are laying too many points. Purdue provided the blueprint by shooting 42% from 3-point land against Arizona, and 3-point shooting is a staple of Alabama’s offense under Nate Oats.

The Crimson Tide will make their shots, but their issue just may be giving up too many on defense. Nonetheless, Alabama should cover the 6.5-point spread and can be played to +5 at -110 odds.

Pick: Alabama +6.5 (Play to to +5)