College Basketball Odds, Pick for Alabama vs Purdue

The Purdue Boilermakers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet on a neutral court for a marquee top-15 KenPom matchup in the best game of the Saturday slate.

This game will be in Toronto, Canada, the hometown of Purdue star Zach Edey.

Purdue is coming off a 20-point home victory over Iowa after dropping a road game in overtime (again) to Northwestern.

Alabama has two losses: one against Ohio State and another against Clemson. The Tide have just one top-50 KenPom win, so there's a reason the Boilermakers are ranked ahead of them.

Both squads boast explosive offenses, but the Crimson Tide slow the pace defensively, while the Boilermakers slow it down offensively.

Alabama ranks 29th nationally in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo metric, averaging 13.8 seconds per possession on offense and 18.6 on defense.

The Tide's defense ranks 70th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency, while their offense ranks second.

Alabama has been strong shooting the 3, ranking 65th in 3-point attempt rate while shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. But the Tide haven't generated many open 3s, ranking 238th in Open 3 rate (per ShotQuality), so negative regression could be looming.

Conversely, Purdue ranks 68th in Open 3 Rate Allowed, so the Boilermakers should deny the Tide open 3-point attempts.

Alabama has a great offense, shooting nearly 57% from 2 while ranking seventh nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate.

But, again, Purdue is relatively good at defending inside and out, ranking 18th in Rim-and-3 Rate Allowed. Edey and Co. should throw the Alabama attack off-kilter.

Alabama can get to the free-throw line, ranking 14th nationally in free-throw rate and making nearly 80%.

Unfortunately for the Tide, Purdue doesn't foul, ranking 17th in free-throw rate allowed, cutting into a go-to-scoring avenue for the Tide if they start to cool off from deep.

Purdue ranks 130th in Adjusted Tempo, so it's the slower of these two teams.

However, the Boilermakers will allow Alabama to play quickly offensively, averaging 16.4 seconds per possession on defense.

They also average 17.3 seconds per possession offensively. And since Alabama slows offenses down, we could see drawn-out Purdue possessions.

Purdue likes to get the ball down low and let Edey work. If that isn't working, Edey can decoy and kick the ball outside to the guards.

The Boilermakers rank 18th nationally in at-the-rim PPP, while Alabama is 134th in that stat defensively.

That said, Purdue ranks 12th in post-up frequency, while Bama ranks 22nd in post-up PPP allowed.

In layman's terms, Alabama can defend Edey in the post.

However, Alabama starting center Grant Nelson could be out. The Tide still have multiple centers that can battle with Edey, though.

As alluded to, Alabama could struggle from 3, as the Tide rank just 175th nationally in Open 3 Rate.

Purdue ranks 89th in that stat, and although the Boilermakers are shooting nearly 40% from 3, they're not getting the most efficient perimeter looks.

Purdue ranks 231st nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate, which isn't ideal.

Finally, Purdue gets to the free-throw line often, while Alabama ranks 226th in defensive foul rate. That makes me a tad worried when betting the under, but not enough to keep me away from this wager.

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Look for the Boilermakers to slow the ball down on offense and prolong their possessions.

Meanwhile, Alabama should be able to hold Edey in check. Even if Nelson is hurt, the Tide have three backup centers standing over 6-foot-10.

Purdue doesn't take the best shots, and Alabama doesn't take open 3s. Therefore, defense could factor more into this game than the market thinks.

I like the under 164 here, and I would play the under at 161 or better.

Pick: Under 164 (Play to 161)

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