NCAAB Odds, Pick for Arizona State vs Washington

One team surging through Pac-12 play hits the road as Arizona State takes on the struggling Washington Huskies on Thursday.

Washington desperately needs a win to build its NCAA tournament resume and keep its postseason hopes alive. Can this experienced squad led by Mike Hopkins defend its home floor, or will the Sun Devils continue to pull off fortunate wins en route to an undefeated conference record?

Arizona State is rolling in Pac-12 play, staging plenty of late comebacks to surge to an undefeated 4-0 record.

The Sun Devils trailed Stanford by 12 halfway through the second half and won by three. The following game, they trailed Cal by as many as 16 and lost. They struggle on the road, but it’s been masked by late comebacks against lesser foes.

Offensively, there’s a lot of issues with Bobby Hurley’s squad. The Sun Devils are 256th in eFG% and have no real success from the perimeter or inside. They shoot 63% as a team from the free-throw line — which often matters in conference games — and are 354th in offensive rebounding.

The one positive? This team draws plenty of fouls and takes care of the basketball.

Frankie Collins is the primary ball handler and leader of this team. He takes about a quarter of all shots while on the floor and has seen both his 2-point and 3-point shooting improve in Pac-12 play.

Arizona State loves to run-and-gun and prefers fast-paced games. The Sun Devils often attack through the pick-and-roll, though ShotQuality grades this offense out poorly. Despite their consistent usage of the PnR, ShotQuality has the Sun Devils at 274th from a PPP perspective. They’re also outside the top 200 in finishes at the rim.

All in all, defense is the name of the game for Arizona State. It's 29th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, with most of its success coming from beyond the arc. The Sun Devils give up nearly 40% of all field goal attempts from 3, though they rank 51st defending them (30.4%).

Washington is a great matchup to beat this defense. The Huskies are elite at Rim-and-3 Rate and should be able to find success on the offensive glass — where ASU is vulnerable. The Sun Devils are 143rd in 2-point defense.

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Unlike Arizona State, luck hasn't been on the side of Washington. Even though they beat lowly Oregon State, the Huskies are 1-3 in Pac-12 play.

All three of those losses came within two possessions. In fact, all but one of their six losses have come by five points or less.

This is an experienced and undervalued Washington team that's seen its NCAA tournament hopes start to slip away. There's no better way to get back on track than being able to take care of middle-of-the-pack conference foes.

Keion Brooks Jr. and Sahvir Wheeler are the engines of the Washington offense. As they go, the Huskies go. Brooks is a physical stretch forward who's developed a reliable 3-point shot this offseason. Wheeler, on the other hand, has struggled from the perimeter, though he’s 22nd in the country in assist rate.

In general, this offense is above average in nearly every metric. The Huskies take care of the ball and rank in the top half of the country in both 3-point and 2-point%. Their spacing has been great and it’s led to plenty of open 3s. It’s a bonus when nearly every big can stretch the floor and hit from the perimeter.

Washington’s offense primarily works through the pick-and-roll. That gives it the option of attacking the rim or trying to find an open shooter on the perimeter.

Center Franck Kepnang, a fierce rim protector and great rebounder, hasn't played since Dec. 17 against Seattle. It’s unlikely he’ll suit up, but his return would provide a huge plus defensively.

There's some work to clean up on the defensive end for Washington. The Huskies don’t force many turnovers, despite their love for pushing the pace. Fouling has become an issue at times — they're outside the top 200 in FTA/FGA on the defensive end — though the Huskies are inside the top 140 in both 2- and 3-point defense.

They also allow plenty of second-chance opportunities.

Their biggest weakness, per ShotQuality, has been defending the perimeter. They rank outside the top 330 in both catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s from a SQ PPP perspective.

The good news? Arizona State’s offense struggles from the perimeter.

As mentioned earlier, this is a must-win game for Washington. It also happens to be a perfect buy-low, sell-high opportunity with Arizona State's recent string of positive luck.

Every close game has bounced against the Huskies, but this is a great matchup for them in front of a home crowd. They have the ability to attack from all angles and space the floor, stretching this Arizona State defense thin.

They are a plus rebounding team with enough experience and length to create second-chance opportunities, regardless of Kepnang's status.

I'm not so sure the Arizona State offense will be able to keep up with an energized team that's desperate for a win. Washington is the better team here, and I expect Alaska Airlines Arena to be rocking en route to a dominant Huskies win.

Pick: Washington -6.5 (Play to -8)

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