Arizona vs Arizona State Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on Over/Under

The season’s first battle for Arizona occurs on Saturday, and the two programs find themselves in drastically different places.

Host Arizona is riding high, sitting atop the Pac-12 standings and odds board as a -280 favorite at FanDuel to earn a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats just swept the dreaded mountain trip and have had a full week off to prepare for their arch-rivals.

Arizona State, meanwhile, is in a tenuous spot. The Sun Devils have lost seven of their last 10 games, and Bobby Hurley is squarely on the hot seat. He's even rumored as a candidate to take the DePaul job as something of a “parachute” gig.

Granted, they have some momentum after winning two in a row, but the Sun Devils need a major rally down the stretch to right the ship.

Of course, this rivalry has been one-sided of late. Arizona has won six of the last seven meetings, and the Wildcats have been favored by 12 or more in three of the last five.

Hurley’s squad has battled to a 2-2-1 against-the-spread record in those games, but winning outright in Tucson this weekend would be a monumental upset.

The Sun Devils’ season took a decidedly negative turn after a 4-0 start to Pac-12 play. ASU won just once in eight tries between Jan. 11 and Feb. 8, largely due to a stagnant offense that lacks perimeter threats.

Two-time transfer Adam Miller was supposed to provide a jolt in that department. However, he has converted only 31% of his triples since gaining eligibility in mid-December.

Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, that makes him the best volume shooter on the team. Jose Perez can hit an open shot, but he's generally more effective attacking smaller defenders in the mid-post.

For a team that struggles to hit jumpers, the offensive glass should be an important asset. ASU ranks dead last in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounding rate, though. The team’s most active rebounders, Shawn Phillips and Bryant Selebangue, are so deficient in other areas that they cannot play big roles.

Most of the limited success ASU has achieved has been via its defense.

Frankie Collins is an on-ball menace, ranking seventh nationally in steal rate, per KenPom. He generates frequent transition opportunities and vital scoring chances for an offense that bogs down in the half-court.

ASU has played some track meets this year, so expect Hurley to be willing to run with Arizona’s pace.

The Sun Devils did have a midweek game on Wednesday in which they destroyed Oregon State in Tempe, giving them a rest disadvantage in this matchup. That should have a limited impact on this game, though, as it’s a colossal contest on the schedule.

In contrast to ASU, the Wildcats are surging after a surprisingly choppy start to their conference season.

Road losses at Stanford, Wazzu and Oregon State raised some eyebrows, but Tommy Lloyd’s squad has covered four of its last five since (albeit one of those covers came by a half-point in a triple-overtime win at Utah).

Perhaps the most important factor to that uptick is Kylan Boswell returning to form. In U of A’s three league losses, he put up a paltry five total points (1.7 per game) on 2-of-19 shooting from the field. He also averaged just 2.3 assists per game to go with 1.7 turnovers.

In the last five games, though, he's tallying 11.6 points per game on 45% shooting (36% from deep), plus 4.0 assists versus 1.8 turnovers. Having their floor leader play up to his ability has been crucial for the Wildcats' improved play.

Against ASU’s on-ball pressure, Boswell is even more critical. If he can avoid miscues while Collins harasses him, Arizona could smash the Sun Devils at the rim.

Led by Oumar Ballo, Arizona is one of the best two-way rebounding teams in the country. Only Saint Mary’s and Purdue are also in the top 20 in rebounding rate on both ends of the floor, according to KenPom.

In three meetings last year, the Wildcats outrebounded the Sun Devils, 123-94. Expect more of the same glass dominance.

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Finding an edge on such a large spread is challenging. Arizona has obvious advantages in many areas in this matchup and will play at home, but it's also a massive rivalry game.

ASU has also played better over the last week and a half, furthering the idea that the Sun Devils will not roll over. Plus, Hurley is 43-32-1 (57.3%) against the spread as a road dog in his career, per Bet Labs.

Thus, I will look to the total here. I expect this to be an uptempo game. When these two met in Tucson last year, it went 76 possessions. Both teams are playing a tick faster than last season, as well.

ASU must find a route to points here — the transition game will be vital — but I'm confident Arizona can score efficiently inside and via second shots. Combined with pace, that leads me to betting the over.

Pick: Over 155.5 (Play to 157)

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