NCAAB Odds, Pick for Baylor vs TCU: Back the Bears?

NCAAB Odds, Pick for Baylor vs TCU: Back the Bears? article feature image

Via Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: RayJ Dennis #10 of the Baylor Bears listens to head coach Scott Drew as Baylor takes on the Houston Cougars in the second half at Foster Pavilion on February 24, 2024 in Waco, Texas.

Baylor vs TCU Odds, Pick

Monday, Feb 26
9:00pm ET
Baylor Odds
-110o / -110u
TCU Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

The Baylor Bears suffered a frustrating overtime loss Saturday afternoon as they had a chance to win in the closing seconds against Houston, but their struggles at the charity stripe cost them the game.

Jamie Dixon's TCU Horned Frogs showed up big time against the Cincinnati Bearcats, as they comfortably covered the spread in the win. The quick turnaround for the Frogs is a bit easier considering they'll remain home when the Bears make the 80-minute drive up I-35 to Forth Worth on Monday.

Scott Drew's team let its game slip away Saturday, and I expect a valiant bounce-back effort on the road.

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Baylor Bears

The Bears made a valiant 16-point comeback in the second half against Houston, and they would have won the game outright if Yves Missi made his free throw with four seconds remaining. It is evident their defensive issues still exist, but there is no questioning the team's overall talent.

They enter the matchup fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in 3-point Accuracy (40.3%). The Frogs have been vulnerable defending the perimeter, and the Bears are the perfect team to exploit that. Guards RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn are shooting above 40% from deep on the year, and I expect them to cash in throughout the matchup.

Defensively, the Bears have to clean up some things to pull off the road win. In their last matchup, the Frogs generated a ton of easy shots at the rim and out on the perimeter. Luckily for them, the Frogs are due for negative 3-point regression on both ends of the floor.

If the Bears can close out better on defense, there is a really good chance they leave Forth Worth with a victory. Regardless, their offense is strong enough to outlast the Frogs.

The Bears lost a brutal game to the Frogs earlier last month in triple overtime, so there is certainly some revenge on their minds.

TCU Horned Frogs

As expected, Dixon's team responded after a tough road loss at Texas Tech. The Frogs defense contained the Bearcats' anemic offense all afternoon long, which allowed them to comfortably pull away in the second half.

I have a feeling the Frogs are in for a rude awakening on Monday evening, especially with the Bears looking for revenge. The Frogs have been far too fortunate on the perimeter on both offense and defense.

They allow 36 attempts per game from deep, but their opponents are shooting 33% on those 3s. I have a feeling the regression monster is looming.

However, the Frogs have the offense to exploit the Bears' defense. Even if their negative shooting regression hits, the Bears are 241st in opposing 2-point field goal percentage.

Forwards Micah Peavy, Emanuel Miller and JaKobe Coles should score at will inside throughout the game. The game plan should be similar to the last matchup, as the Frogs consistently attacked the rim and dished out to the perimeter for open 3s.

Even with their advantage attacking the rim, I still do not trust their offense enough to hold up throughout the game. The Bears should have beaten the Frogs in the first matchup, so I would not expect as impressive of an offensive performance from the Frogs in this contest.

Baylor vs TCU

Betting Pick & Prediction

It's extremely tough to win on the road in the Big 12, but the Bears should get the job done here. They have to be salivating to get back on the court after their devastating loss Saturday.

Their offense is far too strong for the Frogs to keep up with, and I expect different results compared to the first matchup between these two teams. The Frogs' looming regression on both offense and defense is a legitimate concern.

Even if the Frogs score at will on the interior, they won't have enough shooters to keep pace. The Bears want revenge, and I expect them to do just that.

Pick: Baylor +2

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