NCAAB Odds, Pick for Butler vs St. John’s

Last time out, Butler's travel plans went awry and it was forced to head to Providence the morning of the game. Despite that, it battled and took the Friars to overtime, but it was unable to hang on and fell 85-75. On Tuesday night, the Bulldogs are on the road once again as they head to New York to battle St. John's.

St. John's and Butler are both 1-1 in conference. On Saturday, the Red Storm survived a scare with a 84-79 victory over Hofstra to improve to 9-4 on the year. In year one of Rick Pitino, St. John's is already halfway to last season's win total.

Butler leads the series 11-10 since it joined the Big East prior to the 2013-14 season. However, St. John's won two of the three meetings last season. In the first matchup this year, St. John's is a sizable favorite at home.

In year two of the Thad Matta era, the Bulldogs are much more prolific on offense. They are averaging 83.2 points per game thus far, an increase of nearly 18 points per game from last season. The transfer portal helped, as Matta was able to land guards Pierre Brooks, Jahmyl Telfort, DJ Davis and Posh Alexander — the latter of whom played at St. John's the last three seasons.

The four of them are all averaging double figures, with Brooks leading the team at 16.8 points per game. Brooks, Telfort and Davis are shooting at least 37% from three as well, while Alexander leads the team with 5.2 assists per game. Butler shoots just 33% from three as a team, but it makes up for it on the inside. The Bulldogs make 55.2% of their twos, ranking 44th nationally in two-point percentage and 63rd in effective field goal percentage.

With a four-guard lineup, that means Butler always has multiple ball-handlers on the floor. As a result, it averages just 10.5 turnovers per game and ranks 26th nationally in turnover percentage. It also has helped the offense stay efficient, with the Bulldogs ranking 42nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Jalen Thomas and 7-footer Andre Screen split time at the center position with the four guards surrounding them. Combined, they are averaging over two blocks per game, but Butler can be vulnerable on the glass. the Bulldogs are 183rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 169th in defensive rebounding percentage. They allow nearly 12 offensive rebounds per game, which is 279th in Division I.

The Bulldogs are 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and have allowed 81 points per game against high-major opponents this season. They also allowed 91 points to Florida Atlantic.

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Like Butler, St. John's has not had much trouble scoring this season. It is averaging 79.2 points per game with a balanced scoring attack of five double-digit scorers. Pitino aggressively attacked the transfer portal, so there are not many holdovers from last year's team. However, he made sure to keep his best player around.

Center Joel Soriano is averaging a double-double for the second consecutive season with 17.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. He has eight double-doubles in 13 games this season and is the Big East's leading rebounder while ranking fourth in the conference in scoring. He also has expanded his range, shooting 7-of-9 from downtown this season.

St. John's is not a high volume three-point shooting team, but it is making nearly eight per game while hitting nearly 34% of its attempts. Over two-thirds of St. John's field goal attempts are inside the arc, and it is hitting less than half of them at 49.3% thus far this season.

However, many of those misses get collected. The Red Storm are third nationally with 16.4 offensive rebounds per game as well as third in offensive rebounding percentage. In addition to Soriano, guard Chris Ledlum is averaging 7.8 rebounds while guard RJ Luis Jr. is averaging 5.7 rebounds per game.

Defensively, St. John's is forcing nearly 14 turnovers per game, which fuels its break. The frequency at which it is able to turn over Butler will be a key to the game.

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With Brooks and Soriano, this game will feature two of the top five scorers in the Big East. Their teams have no problem filling it up as well. Combined, the teams average 162.4 points per game combined, which is 10 points more than we need for the over here. Additionally, St. John's is averaging nearly eight more points per game at home.

Of games with an available line, the over has hit in five of Butler's last eight games. The over is also 7-6 in St. John's games this season and that's before facing the highest-scoring team in the Big East. I'll happily take the value on 151.5 points here.

Pick: Over 151.5