The Cal Bears take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, Virginia. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Virginia is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Cal vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks for January 7, 2026.
Cal vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Virginia -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
My Cal vs Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cal vs. Virginia Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | +700 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | -1100 |
- Cal vs Virginia spread: Virginia -12.5
- Cal vs Virginia over/under: 147.5 points
- Cal vs Virginia moneyline: Cal +700, Virginia -1100
Cal vs Virginia College Basketball Betting Preview
Cal Basketball
Cal did a great job gaming the system in the non-conference to boost its win total. The Golden Bears went 12-1 during that time, but they played the 338th-rated schedule, per KenPom.
So far in ACC play, Cal is 1-1 with a very fortunate win over Notre Dame. This will be the first ACC road game for Cal.
The Golden Bears have to shoot it well from deep, as 47% of their shots are 3s. They connect at a 38% clip, so hitting 3s has helped keep them above water.
They have four players who average 13+ points per game, and all four shoot better than 37% from deep. The go-to guy is Dai Dai Ames, a former UVA player, who adds 17 points per game on 44% from deep.
Fellow transfers, Chris Bell, Justin Pippen and John Camden are the other three 13+ point-per-game scorers. Camden was horrific in his first two ACC games and scored 10+ points in just one of five high-major games.
I'm also not totally sold that Cal is a top-75 defense, which KenPom says. To me, playing a poor non-conference schedule is doing the heavy lifting in boosting those numbers. Notre Dame, which scored 47 points against Stanford, dropped 1.12 PPP against the Bears, and Louisville scored 1.30 PPP.
The bigger problem for the Bears is rebounding, as they rank 165th in defensive rebounding rate.
Plus, their propensity for shooting 3s can lead to run-outs since they never look to get offensive boards.
Virginia Basketball
Virginia has all the ingredients to run this Cal team off the floor.
For one, long gone are the days of the boring Tony Bennett era. Ryan Odom is all about offense and shooting. The Cavaliers haven't scored less than 73 points in any of their 14 games this season.
Shooting can be a weapon in more ways than just making a shot, which Virginia does often. Virginia is connecting on 37% of its shots from deep, and every player in the rotation can hit a 3.
The other big weapon next to the shooting is the offensive glass, as Virginia grabs 41% of its misses.
Of note, Jacari White might be out due to a left hand injury, but he didn't play in Virginia's last game and it still beat NC State by 15.
With White out, Sam Lewis stepped up and scored 23 points. Malik Thomas will also have to step up if the Cavaliers remain short-handed.
The length with Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grunloh could be a problem for Cal. De Ridder leads Virginia with 16.8 points per game, and he'll give fits to Camden, who'll defend him. Grunloh is a 7-footer who swats away close to three shots per contest.
Cal vs. Virginia Betting Analysis
Virginia is more than a one-trick pony, though. The Cavaliers are 39th in defensive efficiency, while holding teams to 43% shooting on 2s and 30% from deep.
I'm laying the points with Virginia here. Cal did well to dominate poor opponents, but going to Charlottesville to face this Virginia team is a big ask.
I expect Virignia to dominate the glass and really cause problems for this smaller Cal team.
My Pick: Virginia -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
