The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Houston is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1600. The total is set at 134 points.
Here are my Cincinnati vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for January 31, 2026.
Cincinnati vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston -14
My Cincinnati vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs Houston Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 134 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 134 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
- Cincinnati vs Houston spread: Houston -14, Cincinnati +14
- Cincinnati vs Houston over/under: 134 Points
- Cincinnati vs Houston moneyline: Houston -1600, Cincinnati +900
Cincinnati vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Cincinnati Basketball
Cincinnati (11-10 overall, 3-5 in Big 12) gave Houston a run for its money when the two met in Cincy earlier this season, but the Coogs snuck out a 67-60 win.
There’s no doubt about Cincinnati’s dominance on the defensive end, ranking sixth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency.
The Bearcats excel at limiting teams to one-and-done possessions, as opponents grab offensive boards on just 25% of their misses. That also helps the Bearcats' interior defense; opponents shoot just 47% from inside the arc against the Bearcats.
Scoring on Cincinnati’s interior length is a chore. 7-foot-2 big-man Moustapha Thiam and 6-foot-11 Baba Miller each serve as shot-swatting threats.
The issue for Cincinnati is a lack of identity on the offensive end. It ranks a woeful 214th in offensive efficiency and is hooked on shooting a bunch of 3s (44% 3-point rate). However, they hit just 29% from deep, which turns the Bearcats' approach into a losing formula.
Day Day Thomas is the only reliable shooter for Wes Miller. He adds in 40% from deep, and nobody else shoots more than 33% from downtown.
Miller will need to run everything through Thiam and Miller in this game. Miller leads the team with 14 points per game, while Thiam also contributes 11 a night. The issue? Neither can make a jump shot consistently. Miller will take 3s if you leave him open, but he's super quick and great at getting to the hoop.
Houston Basketball
Welcome to the "Houston punishes bad teams" portion of the season. The Cougars defeated their last three opponents outside of KenPom's top-50 by more than 20 points.
Oddly, the Cougars sit just ninth in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That feels a bit off, but it's still an elite defensive unit. Opponents convert on 46% of their 2s (26th nationally) and 31% from 3 (46th nationally). Plus, the Cougars' pressure leads to a strong 22% turnover rate.
The calendar flipping to January was the best recipe for Houston's offense. Since January 1, the Cougars are third in offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Houston is always an elite offensive rebounding unit, and it grabbed 36% of its misses in those seven games since the New Year.
The difference this season for Houston is it has more offensive weaponry than usual. Kingston Flemings is the most talented guard that Kelvin Sampson has coached at Houston. He averages 17.5 points and 5.4 assists per game, while shooting 52% from the field and 40% from deep.
Also, they have three other shooters in Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and forward Chris Cenac Jr.
Cenac is a massive difference-maker. The stud freshman is suction cup-like on the glass — like his frontcourt mate, JoJo Tugler — and he also shoots 41% from deep.
Cincinnati vs. Houston Betting Analysis
I'll lay the number with Houston. The total is low, but would it surprise me if Houston popped off for 75+, as it did against West Virginia? Not at all.
The Cougars scored 1.05 PPP on this Cincinnati defense in the first meeting, but they shot just 32% from deep. I expect a higher-scoring output if the shooting gets closer to their season-average of 34%.
In the first meeting, Cincinnati shot 52% on 2s, and the Bearcats' bigs were able to find a lot of easy layups. If I know anything about Sampson, he'll find a way to take Thiam and Miller out of the game and force the Bearcats to play more on the perimeter than at the rim.
My Pick: Houston -14
