March Madness Odds, Pick for Clemson vs Baylor

Clemson takes on Baylor on Sunday, March 24, at 6:10 p.m. ET on TNT. Here's March Madness odds and a pick for Clemson vs Baylor.

The No. 3-seeded Baylor Bears convincingly sent Colgate packing and will face the No. 6-seeded Clemson Tigers on Sunday.

Clemson's defensive effort against New Mexico was impressive.

The Tigers didn't let the more athletically-inclined Lobos drive past them. They didn't turn the ball over and forced the Lobos to operate in the half-court, a huge advantage for Clemson.

Putting on another strong defensive effort is paramount to winning and beating the dynamic Bears offense.

Defense hasn't been a strong suit for the Tigers, but it's shown up in some of their biggest wins. Some shooting variance benefitted Clemson, as New Mexico went an impossibly bad 3-for-23 (13%) from 3-point range.

You probably can't hold an elite shooting team like Baylor to those pathetic shooting numbers, and Clemson's defensive strategy allows for a lot of variance —  the Tigers allow 3-point attempts on 40% of field goal attempts, working at times and killing them at others.

PJ Hall and Joe Girard III both struggled in the First Round win. Hall — an All-ACC selection — played only 19 minutes due to foul trouble, and Girard had an awful 2-for-12 (17%) shooting performance.

The fact Clemson won despite its top-two leading scorers doing virtually nothing stunned me. Hall needs to avoid foul trouble and allow himself to get involved on the offensive end. He's averaging 19 points per game this year.

Brad Brownell's offense is effective inside-and-out, shooting 35% from 3-point range and 54% on 2s. The interior play from Hall and Ian Schieffelin opens up the perimeter scoring game for Girard and other shooters.

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Baylor posted an elite scoring performance in the First Round, scoring 92 points on 57% shooting, including 16-for-30 (53%) from 3 in the win over Colgate.

That can happen if you let the Bears' offense get some momentum. They won't have Langston Love for the remainder of the NCAA Tournament, but the offense didn't miss a beat without him.

Scott Drew's squad has been elite offensively during his two decades in Waco. Baylor boasts the nation's fifth-best offense this year, with an elite 39% 3-point attack leading the charge. Four of the five Baylor starters shoot close to 40% from 3, led by 44% from Jayden Nunn and 41% from Jalen Bridges.

The scary part is Nunn and Bridges are Baylor's third- and fourth-leading scorers. Guards Ja'Kobe Walter and RayJ Dennis dictate how good the offense is game-to-game.

Dennis is an outstanding playmaker who lives in the lane, averaging 13.2 points and 6.5 assists per game.

But Walter is an X-factor. It's been a bumpy freshman year for the projected top-10 NBA draft pick, but he can score 20-plus points on most nights. He's also equally capable of scoring three points on 1-for-13 shooting, and Baylor can ill afford an off night from its go-to freshman guard.

The only thing holding Baylor's offense back is turnovers, as the Bears toss the ball away on 17% of their offensive possessions. When Dennis forces the issue on tight-window passes, it can lead to an influx of turnovers — he's averaging just shy of four per game.

That said, Clemson plays a very relaxed defensive style and won't pressure the ball often, which benefits the Bears.

Unfortunately, Baylor's defense is far from title-caliber. The Bears rank 74th nationally in defensive efficiency.

The biggest issue is that Drew runs a no-middle defensive scheme designed to force ball-handlers toward the sideline and baseline, but Walter and Dennis are sub-par, point-of-attack defenders, allowing paint-dribble-penetration far too easily.

As a result, opponents are shooting 57% from 2-point range and scoring 31 paint points per game, both below-average D-I marks. There's no resistance at the hoop.

The interior defense has been an issue all year, and I see no signs of improvement.

I love the Bears in this spot.

Baylor doesn't get enough credit for having an awesome season in the toughest conference in college hoops.

They have so many offensive weapons that should exploit Clemson's lousy perimeter defense.

Pick: Baylor -4.5

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