NCAAB Odds, Pick for Clemson vs Memphis

Clemson is off to a 9-0 start and is one of the hottest teams in the country. It already has five wins over top-75 opponents, though it's probably most excited about a 72-67 victory over rival South Carolina last week. On Saturday, Clemson will head to Memphis to battle another group of Tigers.

Memphis is not undefeated, but it's hard to complain about a 7-2 start. It already has wins over Missouri, Michigan and Arkansas. It also added VCU and Texas A&M to that group last week. Despite Clemson being Memphis' 10th game this season, this will be just Memphis' third home game.

The home crowd should be fired up with it being the first home game in a month, and Memphis is a short favorite. However, that may fire up its offense as well.

Clemson has risen to No. 13 in both the AP Poll and NET Rankings, but the advanced metrics haven't fully bought in yet. KenPom has Clemson as the No. 25 team in the country.

The Tigers are balanced on both ends, though.

They're led by forward PJ Hall. The senior is averaging 20.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. Hall is third in the ACC in scoring, seventh in rebounds and second in blocks. He’s shooting 62.8% on his 2-point field goals and 40.5% from 3.

Syracuse transfer guard Joseph Girard III is averaging 15.1 points and is shooting a career-high 44.4% from 3. While Girard always has been a deadly shooter, he's also averaging 3.4 assists per game.

Guard Chase Hunter leads the team with 3.6 assists an evening and is averaging 10.3 points per game.

The Tigers lead the ACC with 17 assists per game. That's not too surprising considering they have a 55.2% effective field goal percentage and are shooting 39.2% from beyond the arc. They rank in the top-40 nationally in both categories.

Their hot shooting has limited their offensive rebounding opportunities, as they're averaging just 10 per game. However, Clemson is averaging 28.3 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks in the top 50. Forward Ian Schieffelin is second in the ACC at 9.6 rebounds per game.

Clemson is 30th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency thus far. It doesn't force many turnovers, but it makes it difficult for opponents to score around the rim. Opponents are shooting just 43.8% on 2-point attempts and 40.3% from the field overall.

The Tigers are 18th in Division I in block rate, and Hall's presence is certainly a factor there.

In a contrast to Clemson, Memphis wants to get out and run. It ranks 25th in Adjusted Tempo and 26th in average possession length offensively.

The Tigers are led by forward David Jones. The senior is at his third school, but he's averaging in double figures for the third year in a row. This season, he's averaging a career-high 20.1 points per game to go along with 6.6 rebounds per game.

Guards Jahvon Quinerly and Caleb Mills are well-traveled themselves and bring veteran savvy to the Tigers' backcourt. Quinerly is averaging 13.3 points and 4.8 assists per game. Mills is averaging shade under 10 (9.8 PPG) and shooting 40% from 3.

The Tigers are shooting 36% from 3 as a team.

Memphis is averaging 11.1 offensive rebounds per game and is above average in offensive rebounding percentage. However, it gives up those extra possessions with turnovers. Memphis averages 14 turnovers per game and is 247th in turnover percentage offensively.

Memphis also forces 14 turnovers per game, so it's even in turnover margin. The Tigers can pose a lot of problems with their length and athleticism at the defensive end. They're 34th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 72nd effective field goal percentage defense. Opponents are shooting under 31.5% from beyond the arc.

Defending the offensive glass could be an area of concern in this game. Memphis is 322nd in defensive rebounding percentage, so Hall and Schieffelin could take advantage.

Memphis has scored 80 points in six of its first nine games this season. The over has hit in each of those games. Its pace will also lead to a few extra possessions.

Clemson wants a slower game, but it's the better 3-point shooting team in this matchup. If Hall, Girard and Co. get hot early on, Clemson will score in bunches.

Additionally, the over is 5-4 in Clemson games this season.

One game in particular stands out to me. In Clemson's win over Alabama — which also plays fast and is top-30 in tempo — the game ended with 162 points. Here we need 152 points, and that's below an average Memphis game (153.8 PPG).

I'm going with the over here, as I'm expecting a ton of points in a tight battle.

Pick: Over 151.5 (Play to 153.5)

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