Indiana is your CFP National Champion, so America now turns its eyes toward the hardwood, where conference play continues en route to the NCAA Tournament.
We have another fantastic slate on tap for Tuesday, including plenty of high-major conference action.
Our staff has three college basketball best bets and NCAAB predictions for tonight's action, including tilts in the Big Ten, Big 12, and Mountain West.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Indiana vs. Michigan Pick
By Evan Abrams
This game activated one of our Action PRO Betting Systems.
In regular-season college basketball conference play, unranked teams coming off large defeats often present hidden value when facing highly ranked opponents.
After losses of roughly 15 to 45 points, these teams tend to be undervalued by both the public and oddsmakers, creating favorable situations against inflated spreads.
The combination of embarrassment, focus, and motivation to regain credibility can elevate effort and execution, particularly when facing a top-six opponent that may overlook them.
Within familiar conference settings, where preparation and style matchups are well understood, these teams often channel that urgency into competitive performances that outperform market expectations.
Indiana needs a bounce-back performance after three straight losses. I also think the Hoosiers are due for a positive regression performance in the shooting department after shooting just 6-for-24 from deep in their 17-point loss to Iowa.
Michigan is coming back down to Earth after its red-hot start, failing to cover double-digit spreads in four consecutive games. I think we can expect more of the same on Tuesday.
Pick: Indiana +15 or Better
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Texas Tech vs. Baylor Pick
I loathe Baylor’s offense. I think the Bears run a far too predictable scheme predicated on dribble-drive and ball-screen patterns for Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou.
That said, I think the Bears' offense is slightly undervalued after playing a murderer’s row of defenses over the past few weeks, including Iowa State, Houston, and Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.
Texas Tech is similarly aggressive in ball-screen coverage to Iowa State and Houston, but the Red Raiders are, obviously, far worse (.92 PPP allowed, eighth percentile). The Raiders have also struggled in isolation and transition defense, which could show up against the Bears.
On the other end of the court, to stop Texas Tech, you have to stop Christian Anderson in ball screens and JT Toppin in short-roll creation. Baylor’s an OK defense overall, but the Bears struggle mightily in ball-screen coverage (.96 PPP allowed, fifth percentile). And while Scott Drew will sprinkle in the Drew Family 1-3-1 zone, you can't really zone Texas Tech because Toppin and LeJuan Watts are too good as high-post pin men.
At the same time, Baylor keeps throwing the ball away, ranking last in the Big 12 in turnover rate. While Texas Tech doesn't get out in transition much, the Raiders should pick up more than a few fast-break points off turnovers.
Baylor’s going to have a tough time stopping Texas Tech, but I think this is a good bounce-back spot for the Bears' offense at home against a gettable defense.
Ultimately, I project 162.9 points for this Big 12 battle, easily my biggest projected edge over the market on Tuesday.
Pick: Over 159 or Better
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UNLV vs. Utah State Pick
By Duck
Utah State has slowed the tempo considerably in league play, with every conference game but one ending with 66 possessions or fewer.
UNLV has run some tempo at times this season, but the Rebs have slowed the pace in MWC play, and their last time out, they played a game with 56 possessions against San Jose State.
I would assume the Utah State defense shows up here, as it was humbled in its last outing. This unit ranks 45th nationally in overall defensive efficiency, per KenPom’s rankings, and eighth in steals forced.
UNLV will be tested in the half-court, and while its offense has been good this season against lower-echelon MWC teams, executing on the road is a different story.
UNLV has defended well on the interior, and neither team wants to take a ton of 3-pointers.
Utah State should be methodical about working the ball into the paint, and UNLV matches up decently well with Kimani Hamilton and Jacob Bannarbie in the post.
If UNLV can keep its big men out of foul trouble, it can muck this game up enough on the defensive end to keep the Utah State scoring output lower and hang in there.
I don’t think we'll see enough possessions for this one to get over this total. Utah State will be challenged to show up defensively, and I believe it'll respond at home.
Watch for this game to finish with 67-to-69 possessions and finish Under the posted total.
Pick: Under 156.5 or Better
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