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After two rather slow days in the sport, we're back in full swing of things on Thursday.
And there's plenty of betting value that our staff has found on the board.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including four NCAAB picks for Thursday, November 5.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
4 College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
LIU vs. Seton Hall
I ran a college basketball projection model article last season here at Action Network. Well, this season the numbers are back, but in a much improved way: they're the official Action PRO projections.
You can access these numbers from the link above, or you can follow the "Action CBB Model" account in the Action Network app.
For my first play of the season as part of our written daily best bets files, I'm taking Long Island-Seton Hall under 141.5.
My projection has this number at 137.6, giving us nearly a four-point edge.
That's good enough for me, especially when defensive-first head coach Shaheen Holloway is roaming the sidelines for the Pirates.
Pick: Under 141.5
Buffalo vs. Pitt
By Evan Abrams
Buffalo was pummeled in its opening game against Marshall, 92-65. Meanwhile, Pitt smoked Rider, 95-57 in its first matchup.
So, shouldn't the Panthers do the same to the Bulls on Thursday, especially at home?
Not according to my "Betting The Bad" Bet Labs Sports Insights system, which says backing the 'dog Buffalo at +18.5 is the play in this game.
This system has a 1% return on investment (ROI) all-time and a 3% ROI this season alone.
For more information on "Betting The Bad," here's the theory behind it:
In college basketball, teams that have struggled against the spread and are coming off a decisive loss often become undervalued by the market, particularly when facing large double-digit spreads.
After repeated poor performances, oddsmakers tend to overadjust, creating opportunities for motivated teams to outperform expectations even without winning outright.
The combination of public bias against losing teams and the natural tendency for effort and variance to stabilize makes these spots profitable over time.
By backing teams that appear to be playing poorly but are priced at their lowest point, this system identifies where perception has drifted too far from performance reality, leading to consistent value against inflated lines.
Another system — "Bad ATS Over Good ATS, High Total" — also has this as its pick of the day.
Pick: Buffalo +18.5
Penn vs. Illinois
There's no reason for this Fighting Illini team to be looking ahead to Tuesday's matchup against Texas Tech. Not only is that too large of a gap, but it's also too early in the season to start looking ahead and taking your foot off the gas.
They're going to clean up their flaws and use Penn as a get-ready game for next Tuesday.
Penn has yet to see any real game action this season. All the Quakers have had to prepare for Illinois is their annual Red and Blue Scrimmage. Yikes.
Illinois already has real game experience under its belt and has played at an incredibly high level out of the gate. Meanwhile, Penn has spent the past few months scrimmaging against itself.
This one could be a slap in the mouth for the Quakers.
Pick: Illinois -30.5
Cal Poly vs. Arizona
By Sean Paul
Arizona is a massive 30.5-point favorite, which mirrors the range of most 1 v 16 matchups in the NCAA Tournament.
Neither side catches my eye since Arizona can beat any mid-major by 40+, and Cal Poly can get hot from 3 and keep it close.
I want over 172.5. Arizona probably cracks 100+ here, thanks to its pace and size advantage over Cal Poly.
If the Wildcats can turn Cal Poly over, that’s even better. The Mustangs need to take their run-out chances to shoot 3s; that’s their path to scoring 70+.
Give me the over.
Pick: Over 172.5
