Thursday's college basketball slate may not have the star power we're used to on other days of the week, but there's plenty of value to be had amongst all the mid-major action.
We have three college basketball best bets and NCAAB predictions for Thursday, Jan. 29. Check them out below.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. ET | |
  | 7 p.m. ET | |
  | 11 p.m. ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Samford vs. Furman
By Joshua Nunn
The first matchup between these two teams was played at 70 possessions and ended in a 77-73 Furman win. We saw horrific shooting in that game, as the two teams combined to shoot 13-of-51 from 3-point range.
Furman should shoot the ball a lot better at home, and it was encouraging that the Paladins were 14-of-27 from deep in their most recent contest against UNC Greensboro.
Samford is getting to the line a ton since entering SoCon play (tops in the conference). The Bulldogs were very effective in the paint in the first meeting, and I would expect long stretches with both Faulkner and Will Shaver on the floor.
The additional size will create some advantages offensively for Samford in the paint.
Furman should be able to shred this Samford defense on the interior. Wilkins will create off the drive, and shooters will have open looks for the Paladins, who aren't afraid to heave from deep. Four different Paladin players have 100 or more 3-point attempts on the season, and we should see open looks in this one.
They still have to go in, but we should see efficient offensive play.
I feel like both offenses have the advantage. Samford will create in the paint and get to the line, and Furman will have several open looks from deep.
If we get decent shooting, this should go over.
Pick: Over 148.5
UNC Greensboro vs. Mercer
By Evan Abrams
This matchup triggered our Action PRO betting system, which is 30-17-1 on the season, producing a 21% ROI, and a 2% ROI since 2005 :
Teams that have struggled against the spread and are fresh off a blowout loss often become sharply undervalued by the market, especially when catching large double-digit spreads on the road.
Oddsmakers and casual bettors overreact to recent poor performances and reputation gaps, inflating lines toward the hotter home favorite.
These spots exploit public bias against "bad" teams reeling from decisive defeats. UNCG's recent 23-point home loss to Furman fits perfectly, combined with natural regression in effort, shooting variance, and motivation for the dog.
Over time, backing these motivated underdogs at their perceived lowest point yields consistent value, as perception drifts far from reality and lines overadjust—leading to covers even in losses.
UNCG's dismal 7-12 ATS mark, post-rout bounce-back potential, Mercer's hot but regression-prone ATS streak, and the inflated +11.5 number in a conference matchup where the public piles on the favorite all create a spot to capitalize on.
Fade the overreaction and back UNCG +11.5.
Pick: UNCG +11.5
Hawaii vs. UC Irvine
The over/under for Hawaii vs. UC Irvine opened 137.5, and has since seen a big move up to 140.5 overnight.
On a total that Action PRO released seven points off, projections reveal oodles of value picking the game to land under.
Watching lines trickle in, Hawaii vs. UC Irvine popped with an A+ edge after comparing it to the model opener of just 129.8. After adjusting to 133.9, PRO data still forecasts a +6.1% edge tailing projections.
Hawaii has been an 'under' machine this season. The Warriors have finished under the closing total in 13 of 17 lined games and nine of 11 since Thanksgiving.
Also, both Hawaii's and UC Irvine's defenses have been stingy. The Anteaters rank No. 4 in the nation in opponent field goal percentage, while the Warriors are just nine spots back, at No. 13 overall.
PRO models are buying both defenses, with a solid edge on the under.
Pick: Under 140.5
