Boise State vs San Jose State Odds, Pick for Friday

Tipping off the weekend in the Mountain West Conference, San Jose State welcomes Boise State on Friday night.

The Spartans dropped a heartbreaker to open conference play at Wyoming to fall to 7-7 on the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos went 6-1 in December to carry a 9-4 record into Mountain West action in the New Year.

In a tough conference, every game is going to be crucial for postseason play, and this one should be no different Friday night.

After leading his team to back-to-back trips to the NCAA Tournament, coach Leon Rice has tested this group with a difficult non-conference slate. The Broncos’ strength of schedule ranks 41st according to KenPom, and it should only improve against Mountain West opponents.

Boise State has been up for the challenge so far, picking up three wins over teams that rank in the top 100 of the NET. The big victories include beating San Francisco and Saint Mary’s out of the West Coast Conference.

The Broncos have been able to depend on a veteran roster headlined by the dynamic duo of Tyson Degenhart and Max Rice. The two All-Mountain West performers returned this season alongside former Texas Tech transfer Chibuzo Agbo to round out an experienced squad that has 273 combined starts in their careers.

Agbo has gotten off to a hot start this season, leading the team in scoring at 15.3 points per game. He also ranks in the top 10 in the country in 3-point shooting at 45.9 percent.

Coach Rice has his program set to make another run at a conference title and an invite to the Big Dance.

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San Jose State also enjoyed an impressive season in 2022-23 by ending the campaign playing in the College Basketball Invitational, the Spartans' first postseason tournament since 2011.

That momentum carried into this year, as coach Tim Miles’ team got a big victory in its season opener against UC Irvine. Now, San Jose State has to lock in to get some wins in a tough conference.

Miles’ squad is balanced on offense, with four players averaging double figures in scoring. This is also the same team that leads the Mountain West in 3-pointers made per game at 9.1.

The Spartans are led by point guard Alvaro Cardenas. The sophomore from Spain ranks in the top 30 in the nation in assists (5.6 APG), and is one of just 15 players to average at least 13.5 points and five assists per game.

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It is hard to make a play on the spread or moneyline here because of the large discrepancy in strength of schedule between the teams. However, I do see value in the total.

My best bet is for the game to fall under the total of 142.5, which I would bet down to 139.5.

This will be the Spartans’ toughest defense they have played all season. The two opponents San Jose State has faced that rank inside the top 60 in AdjD, according to BartTorvik, were UC Irvine and Texas Tech — and this same bet cashed in both.

Meanwhile, Boise State is accustomed to playing in lower-scoring games on the road. In six games away from ExtraMile Arena, four finished under this same total.

I also expect the tempo to be at a slower pace, with San Jose State ranking 300th in tempo, according to KenPom, and Boise State also sitting outside the top 100.

Pick: Under 142.5 (Play to 139.5)