Boise State vs Washington State Odds, Pick

Both the Washington State Cougars and Boise State Broncos are in need of quality non-conference wins before league play begins at the end of the month, and this is the final chance for both to make a real statement. The Cougars have only faced one team in the KenPom top 100 this season, and they lost by 12 to Mississippi State. A home win against Portland State as their best non-conference win is quite underwhelming.

Boise State picked up a neutral court win against St. Mary's and a win against VCU that will likely age well as the Rams improve, but the Broncos weren't competitive in key non-conference tilts against Clemson and Butler.

The market has this game lined as a toss-up, which is generally where it should be lined for Thursday's matchup. But both teams ability to guard the 3-point line has this total too high near the 140s.

Boise State's lack of shot-making and creation in the post-Marcus Shaver Jr. era has been alarming at various points of the season. The Broncos offense is supposed to run through Tyson Degenhart and Max Rice, but neither have been efficient offensively. In three games against high-major opponents, Degenhart has totaled just nine made field goals. He's capable of getting to the rim and drawing fouls, but his perimeter shooting has regressed because he's had to take tougher shots without Shaver creating.

Cam Martin has taken over most of the offensive passing duty and has the highest assist rate on the team, but he also has a turnover rate above 20% this season. The Broncos waste far more possessions offensively this year with turnovers because Martin isn't as reliable or consistent with the ball in his hands and trying to create for others.

The Broncos are in the top 85 nationally in 3-point field goal rate, but they only have one shooter who is making 3s right now to key in on. They'll struggle to score often from the perimeter against an elite 3-point defense that doesn't concede many open looks, as Washington State ranks 30th best in the nation in terms of giving up open 3s.

The Broncos enjoy a size advantage from a length perspective against most of their fellow mid-major opponents, as they rank 22nd in average height. But against the extreme length of the Cougars' lineup, Boise State's offense's inability to generate separation and create open looks becomes an even bigger weakness.

Washington State has played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the entire country. Their opponents as a whole rank 341st in KenPom SOS efficiency. It has certainly helped the Cougars improve their numbers on the defensive side of the ball, but Kyle Smith's group seems to grade out well overall too, even when adjusting for opponent quality.

Defensively, the Cougars match up well with the Broncos. Washington State is not only elite at guarding the 3-point line, but they rank in the top 35 in ball screen defense, per ShotQuality. Boise State runs ball screens at a top-25 rate in the entire country, and they'll have trouble getting consistent looks against the long and switchable Washington State ball screen defense.

The Cougars primary defensive weaknesses are in post-up defense and in transition, but Boise State doesn't run in transition much and prefers to run through its guards and not in the post offensively.

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There's a massive difference in the strength of schedule for these two teams, but it's clear from a matchup perspective and the strengths of these two defenses that the total opened way too high at 140.5. I'd bet the total down to 137 and would expect this number to be closer to 135.

The combined length and ability to guard the 3, as well as Washington State facing a difficult defensive opponent that's closer to them in overall quality, should turn this game into a half-court grinder.

Pick: Under 139 | Play to 137

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