Butler vs Xavier Odds, Pick for Tuesday

As we dive into the depths of conference play in college basketball, most people's eyes drift to the top of the standings and the games that pit contenders in the conference against one another.

There's an argument, however, that the more interesting games feature the teams off to slower starts in league play. Those are the matchups that will dictate the NCAA tournament bubble, conference tournament seeding and, for some, the first spins of the coaching carousel.

That's the type of game we'll see in Cincinnati on Tuesday, when the Butler Bulldogs travel to visit the Xavier Musketeers. Both teams are off to sub .500 starts in Big East play after showing some promise in the non-conference slate.

The winner of this game could re-spark a run towards March, while the loser is really behind the eight-ball.

With Thad Matta returning to coach his alma mater for a second stint, the common perception might be that he's building a hard-nosed team that wins with defense and by doing things "The Butler Way." In practice, that hasn't been the case.

Matta has certainly made strides with the program, which had just one season with a winning record in the Big East under LaVall Jordan. The Bulldogs have taken a roster assembled in the transfer portal and gelled into a team that can compete with the top dogs in the Big East, yet they've done so with a spread out, attacking offense.

The defensive end of the floor has been a major concern in Indianapolis.

Butler has held just one of its last four opponents to under 1.13 points per possession. The national average in that stat hovers around 1.05, with the top 75 or so defenses allowing under 1.0 points per trip.

The only recent opponent that Butler held in check was highly-ranked Marquette, which shot 5-of-31 from outside the arc, including stars Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek making just one of their 17 combined 3-point attempts.

It's concerning that Butler ranks ninth in the Big East in defense so far, while not facing a high 3-point shooting percentage. The Bulldogs don't force turnovers and fail to protect the defensive glass, opening up tons of new possessions for opposing offenses.

There's some hope that Matta can figure it out on the go. In his 16 years at Xavier and Ohio State, his teams finished with a top-30 Defensive Efficiency in the nation 13 times.

The concern here would be that he doesn't have the personnel in place. Matta plays two small guards next to each other in the backcourt and hasn't found the right option on the interior at the center spot this season.

Sean Miller was expected to have a roster capable of punching amongst the Big East's elite teams this season. However, before the season even started, he lost forwards Jerome Hunter and Zach Freemantle to injury.

The resulting Musketeers team was left stuck in a bit of a middle ground.

Xavier is a solid team, good enough to hang around the NCAA tournament bubble for most of this season. The Musketeers can't seem to stretch beyond that, though.

Xavier is 5-2 ATS as an underdog, but just 2-5 straight up in those games, eventually failing to go punch-for-punch with the best teams on its schedule.

The good news for Xavier is there are plenty of chances to pick up impressive wins. KenPom marks the Musketeers' schedule as the fifth-toughest in the nation.

If the Musketeers can continue to defend at a high-level — currently 25th nationally in Defensive Efficiency — they'll keep having chances.

The scoring duo of Desmond Claude and Rice transfer Quincy Olivari is strong enough for Xavier to at least tread water against a hellish schedule.

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These teams are at similar points in their seasons, with this win crucial to whoever can capture it. This is a game that should be determined on the perimeter, where both teams have their most talented and productive players.

You'd give Xavier half a leg up there, with a slight size and skill advantage at the guard spots — plus the Musketeers are playing at home.

In theory, you'd lean towards a Musketeers win here.

Be that as it may, I think if the spread gets to 6.5, it's too high. These teams are more alike than that spread would indicate, even when factoring in home court. Xavier is just three days removed from a fantastic performance on the road at Providence, where the Musketeers hit half their 3-point attempts.

I'd look for a little letdown against a desperate Butler team that's looking to sneak its way back into the postseason conversation. However, at the current opening number of 5.5, I'd stay away.

Pick: Butler +6.5 or Better