Cincinnati vs Oklahoma Odds, Pick: Back the Sooners?

Cincinnati takes on Oklahoma on Tuesday, March 5 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Here's Cincinnati vs Oklahoma odds and a pick.

Oklahoma and Cincinnati will meet on the hardwood Tuesday night in a Big 12 matchup between two teams in the top 50 in the NET rankings.

The Sooners enter the game with a 19-10 overall record after a heartbreaking loss to No. 1 Houston over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Bearcats have struggled in their debut season in their new league, losing five of their last seven to sit at 17-12 overall.

This contest has major implications for the postseason aspirations of both squads, which should give us a great battle in Norman.

It was always going to be a difficult transition for coach Wes Miller and his squad moving into one of the toughest conferences in the country.

The challenge got even harder when a key contributor from last season regressed. Viktor Lakhin averaged in double figures in scoring and led the team in rebounding in the 2022-23 season. However, Lakhin is only chipping in 6.2 points and 4.4 rebounds per game in Big 12 play this year.

Despite Lakhin’s struggles, Miller’s team is still an elite rebounding unit. Cincinnati leads the conference and ranks in the top 15 nationally in rebound margin.

Another key for the Bearcats is the number 70. In 14 of 17 victories this season, Cincinnati has scored at least 70 points.

The program is currently not on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. If Cincinnati can pick up some key wins down the stretch to go with its strong metrics, this could be a team playing late in March.

Coach Porter Moser was so close to a signature win Saturday when the Sooners took the top-ranked team in the country to the final buzzer.

Houston hit the go-ahead bucket with less than a second remaining to escape the Lloyd Noble Center with a victory. While I do believe Moser’s squad is in a good position for postseason play, a win over the Cougars would have cemented the team in the Big Dance.

Now, Moser needs to get his team back on track for the final two games of the regular season, especially with the Sooners dropping four of their last five.

While all four of those defeats came against ranked teams, it does leave Oklahoma with no room for error in its remaining contests.

Ultimately, this handicap comes down to which team can respond to its dramatic finishes over the weekend, which I believe points to one side in this one.

My best bet is to take Oklahoma to cover the spread of -4.5 at DraftKings, which I would play to -5. I would wait until closer to the opening tip as I do believe this number could drop to the key number of -3.

The Sooners have been a profitable team to back following a loss. In conference play, Moser’s team has covered the spread following a loss on five of eight occasions.

Meanwhile, I have a formula for going on the road and competing in conference play. You need to be able to shoot, avoid turnovers and knock down your free throws. Cincinnati does not pass any of those marks. On the season, the Bearcats rank outside the top 200 by BartTorvik in EFG%, turnover percentage and free-throw shooting.

Miller’s squad has done a good job away from home this season, but I just believe I’m getting the better team that needs a win to stay in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid.

I’d love for this spread to come down to the key number of three. However, I still believe -4.5 is a playable number.

Pick: Oklahoma -4.5 (Play to -5)