Colorado vs Cal Odds, Pick for Wednesday

Colorado will play its third consecutive Pac-12 road game on Wednesday and try to break a two-game skid after losing to both Arizona and Arizona State on Thursday and Saturday. Tad Boyle's squad escaped non-conference play without a truly bad loss, but has suffered three consecutive conference losses with two to teams outside of the KenPom top 100.

Cal picked up its biggest win of the season to date on Sunday with a road win at UCLA, but the beginning of the Mark Madsen era in Berkeley hasn't quite gone as well as hoped or as the market expected. The Golden Bears finished last season 270 in KenPom and entered this year 140th. They still sit 141st despite a 4-10 overall record.

The Golden Bears usually control the glass in their games, but they'll struggle to do that against this Colorado frontline. As a result, the total is a bit inflated.

There's still a bunch of shooting regression looming for the Buffaloes' offense. They've made 39.5% of their 3s this season and their true talent isn't close to that level offensively. KJ Simpson had never made more than 27% of his 3s prior to this year and now he's shooting 45% from deep. Luke O'Brien's two-year average was around 35%, and now he's up above 40%. Julian Hammond is also shooting well above his career averages.

The Buffaloes don't shoot a ton of 3s, but they're making the few 3s they do shoot at unsustainable rates and it is inflating their market perception offensively. Colorado is 61st nationally per ShotQuality in open 3 rate, but they're not a top 10 3-point team nationally like their season long percentage would suggest.

The Buffaloes do prefer to get downhill and get to the rim as much as possible, where Tristan da Silva and Eddie Lampkin are extremely physical and can impose their will on the glass. They do not concede second chance opportunities and that's a major key to slowing down a Cal offense that struggles mightily on its first shot.

Cal is a top 100 defense at the rim and a top 25 defense in the post. The ShotQuality metrics say that the Colorado perimeter offense is overvalued and the size of Cal on the interior can match up well to nullify the Buffs size.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

The market really believes in Madsen and this Cal team overall. ShotQuality suggests they're about to go on a winning run overall. They've won the ShotQuality final score report in all four of their conference games, and that includes matchups with Arizona and USC.

Teams have made 36% from 3 against the Cal defense, which on paper would suggest that Colorado should get a ton of open looks and make them on Wednesday. The underlying data suggests that Madsen's team has actually defended at a national average rate. Teams are shooting four percent better than you'd expect based on the quality of shots.

The Golden Bears have four losses by three points or fewer and then also lost a double overtime game to Butler and an overtime game to San Diego State. Their actual record is 4-10, but their ShotQuality record is 10-4.

They are a major positive regression candidate and it starts on the defensive end. The Golden Bears are a top 30 traditional defense nationally, per ShotQuality, and Jalen Cone is a natural matchup for K.J. Simpson to the point where Cone's lack of size won't be a huge issue.

A third straight road game in the Pac-12 is quite difficult given the amount of travel that includes for Colorado.

The spread is too inflated against a Cal team that has major positive regression coming, and the total is too high given that both of these defenses have been unlucky with opponent shot making against them at this point in the season.

Neither perimeter defense is as bad as the market suggests, and both teams have defensive strength on the glass and at the rim to prevent too many easy looks for the other.

I'd bet Cal at +5 or better and would also take the under at 150 or better.

Pick: Cal +5 | Under 150.5