FIU vs FAU Odds, Pick for Wednesday

The FIU Panthers have a tall test ahead of them against Florida Atlantic on the road. FAU should win in a rout, but despite that, the Owls' defense is porous at times. This showed in their loss to Illinois last Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, as the Owls gave up 98 points.

FIU has a better defense than offense, but it still ranks 182nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Golden Panthers gave up at least 85 points to Miami and UCF earlier this season.

The kicker here is the pace of both of these teams.

FIU ranks 101st in Adjusted Tempo. It averages 16.5 seconds per possession offensively and 16.3 seconds per possession defensively.

One of the Panthers' ways to push the pace is turning opponents over. The Panthers own a 27.1% defensive turnover rate, which ranks second in college hoops.

FAU is above average when it comes to maintaining control over the ball, but it still turns it over 15.6% of the time. FIU gets 14% of its points in transition, so this should be a source of offensive production for it in this matchup.

FIU is particularly strong driving the ball. It only shoots 29.9% from deep — while hoisting 3s 40% of the time — but it's shooting 53.6% inside the arc. Adding on, the Panthers rank 87th in points per possession at the rim, per ShotQuality. FAU ranks 170th in PPP at the rim defensively, so this could be an issue for the Owls.

Even though FIU doesn't shoot well from deep, it ranks 92nd in Open 3 Rate, and therefore, 33rd in Rim-and-3 Rate. The Panthers are taking the right shots, but the shots just aren't falling.

That said, they could in this matchup, as FAU ranks 143rd and 158th in these metrics defensively. Opponents are shooting 48.8% against the Owls on 2s and nearly 33% on 3s. These aren't the best numbers.

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FAU is obviously the better team, as it ranks sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and has put up at least 83 points in all but two games. The Owls can shoot inside and out, hitting 38.5% from deep and 58% from inside the arc.

FIU is allowing opponents to shoot plenty of 3s (40% 3-point attempt rate on defense). The Panthers are also permitting teams to shoot 33.6% from deep and 57.8% from 2-point range.

Furthermore, FAU ranks 10th in Rim-and-3 Rate and 40th in Open 3 Rate. Simply put, the Owls are taking even better shots more often than FIU. The Panthers rank 296th and 230th in these metrics, so the Owls should have a field day.

FAU doesn't have a ton of size but Vladislav Goldin is 7-foot-1. The Owls rank 82nd in offensive rebounding for a reason, and Johnell Davis helps in this regard.

FIU can't crash the glass on either end of the floor, and its tallest regular is 6-foot-9. The Panthers rank 352nd in allowed offensive rebounding rate, so FAU will have multiple second-chance points.

Finally, FAU also plays at a fast tempo, ranking 145th in the NCAA and averaging 16.7 seconds per possession offensively. Although it averages 17.9 seconds per possession on defense, FIU should still have quick possessions.

Both of these teams play quickly and have edges on offense. Look for the Panthers to score inside and in transition, and look for FAU to score at will.

This game should go over the total and can be taken to 154.

Pick: Over 152 (Play to 154)

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